It wasn’t wild speculation, lots of facts are going to be “fluid” right now, and I think we’re all reasonable enough to get data and sort through it
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go on telegram or tiktok and follow ukrainian MPs or Nexta.
RU forces tried to take almost every city so far, and they were repelled most times, even retaking territory.
holding urban landscape without local help is really hard. the occupying force needed to be 5x as big.
It really seems like with modern technology in terms of explosives, long range targeted missiles, etc… That the odds are really stacked against the invading force. Seems like the only way to advance and take territory is to just indiscriminately level everything in your path.
It’s like the reverse of the dice math from RISK
https://twitter.com/sarahkendzior/status/1497295111809556502
https://twitter.com/sarahkendzior/status/1497295911088799744
Seems like we’ve been trying to appease Putin for a while? Or maybe there’s some other reason for not having an ambassador.
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497266398929854466?s=20&t=hRs0QeqUwJH1z2ZkYj51fg
https://twitter.com/CarlSchreck/status/1497244146251153410?s=20&t=hRs0QeqUwJH1z2ZkYj51fg
Don’t know if these are related
We got all these civil forfeiture laws that are great for stealing chump change from Black people, but we can’t bring a suit against some oligarch’s Miami penthouse and then seize it when it fails to defend itself against money laundering charges?
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https://twitter.com/bubbaprog/status/1497281643505201156
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just in: swift is happening. france/germany agreed to it to Ze/MPs.
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Yes, it just stops Russia moving ships out, not home. And all the ships are out.
This was covered in the real press yesterday. Twiiter often a day behind.
Turkey cannot stop Russian warships accessing the Black Sea via its straits, as Ukraine has requested, due to a clause in an international pact that allows vessels to return to their home base, the Turkish foreign minister said.
Reuters reports:
Ukraine has appealed to Turkey to block Russian warships from passing through the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits which lead to the Black Sea, after Moscow on Thursday launched a full-blown assault on Ukraine from land, air and sea.
Russian forces landed at Ukraine’s Black and Azov Sea ports as part of the invasion.
Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Turkey has control over the straits and can limit the passage of warships during wartime or if threatened, but the request has put the Nato member in a difficult position as it tries to manage its Western commitments and close ties with Russia.
Speaking in Kazakhstan, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Turkey was studying Kyiv’s request but said Russia had the right under the Convention to return ships to their home base, in this case the Black Sea.
So even if Turkey decided after a legal process to accept Ukraine’s request and close the straits to Russian warships, he said, they would only be prevented from travelling in the other direction, away from their home base into the Mediterranean.
The Secretary General of NATO said today that cyber attacks on NATO countries could trigger Article 5.
turkey could start enforcing a no-fly zone over black sea and parts of ukraine. eventually US can join in the effort.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497285592207429633
https://twitter.com/zacklowet/status/1497289392687390721
https://twitter.com/StachowskiGreg/status/1497294524682579968
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It can, albeit with some difficulty, be circumvented when it will delay and not prevent payments. The links I gave go into more detail.
SWIFT is just a bunch of text files with payment details. It’s not a payment system.
I can understand why Putin would be unhappy about this but he must have anticipated it when planning the invasion.
This is the first social media war. Doom scrolling multiple websites like a crack addict.
Gonna hit the gym.
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that’s keeeed right? lol. the op has not aged well.
Sanctions are meaningless and worthless as everyone pre buys, drags their feet and hems and haws. It will have no impact on Putin, everything that eventually gets laid down will be worked around.
If anyone is hoping sanctions work, we can’t even get working sanctions.
people have an unrealistic idea about sanctions effectiveness. fear of sanctions can change a regime’s behavior. sanctions themselves only serve to contain.
oh man. captured soldier calls his parents
Me as well. Hard not to to be honest. My shame level has certainly gone up even further.
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