How much can they commit without decisive progress before they have to give up? Seems like that number has to be < 100%, right?
One part gas, one part cloth, one part alcohol, garnished with a healthy amount of go fuck yourself.
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I assume they got more.
Russia can’t really give up at this point without massively losing face, which he seems like he wouldn’t be willing to do. Tbh, a failed invasion may cause some really bad decisions at Putin that would widen the conflict.
No.
British troops arrive in Estonia transporting military equipment and tanks to reinforce Nato ally
Who else would you expect to see transporting military equipment? Amazon?
Let’s read the next two sentences in your article:
British troops arrived in Estonia on Friday as part of a Nato mission to strengthen the alliance’s eastern flank after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Military lorries and flatbed trucks carrying tanks crossed over the Latvian-Estonian border a week after the UK announced it would double the size of British forces in Estonia.
lol jalfrezi
This seems really ominous.
https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252220311642117
https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252468585115650
Like what though? What does Putin have other than nukes? Clearly he’s not ready to invade any other countries. His planes would get wiped out by air defenses. Any sea attack would get his navy destroyed.
We’re really just talking about if his crazy enough to launch nukes, and if everyone else necessary in the chain of command would actually launch them. Which are big ifs. But let’s nail down what we’re talking about here. Nukes seem to be his only real escalation option at this point.
He has those supersonic ballistic missiles that (supposedly) nobody else has, which are (supposedly) too fast to be intercepted.
Now, I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if we have the same tech or better and/or the ability to intercept it, but who knows?
So let’s say Putin gets trounced in Ukraine and lashes out. Who does he fire those at?
The big question is whether he is a rational actor or not at this point.
Man what kind of shit army doesn’t have enough medics and doctors on hand?
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Russia could sling missiles a new Lusitania, they could accidentally shoot down civilian aircraft, they could declare any ship or airstrip providing supplies to Ukraine as fair game.
They don’t have to use nukes to broaden this conflict.
My thoughts are that the chances of this conflict broadening are a function of the time this conflict goes on. If it was super quick, it would have a smaller chance of escalation. If it gets drawn out, it will be harder for the west to watch without doing anything and provide more opportunities for Russians to do something stupid against a western target.
And if he isn’t, are their Russians internally who will stand up to him? Our military wasn’t going to let Trump launch nukes.
Desperate people will do desperate things, but encouraging them to do it is unwise. It’s not like it’s that hard to sign people up for the militia and give them an armband, an officer and a rifle.
I’ve been hesitant to talk about this, but the Snake Island thing makes me a little uneasy too. It’s not good to fight to the death against overwhelming odds unless you’re accomplishing something. I don’t really understand the situation at Snake Island, so maybe there was some objective that was worth 13 lives, but the media accounts make it sound like they got themselves killed out of spite, which is not quite the same as heroism.
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I mean they’ve already hit a Moldovan ship and a Panamanian-flagged Japanese ship, neither of which was military.
Like assuming those were accidents, imagine if they accidentally hit a US civilian ship.
It’s 20 miles from Romania. Maybe that matters.
Russia has always relied on the ability of their military to throw more people into the meat grinder than you could.
(also… the us military isn’t so great on this topic)
I have mixed feelings about all of this too, but if those 13 men inspired their country to fight harder, and they manage to survive this as a country, they did not sacrifice their lives for nothing.
All of those actions will bring down much more international pressure on them. They clearly aren’t prepared for WWIII with anything other than nukes. Why would they want to start it by sinking a new Lusitania?
I guess it all comes down to if they could get China on board somehow.
I would be shocked if the audio of those guys telling the Russian Navy to go fuck themselves hasn’t been shared among all the Ukrainian troops, and isn’t playing a direct role in keeping their morale up.
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