I saw this same video used yesterday for something else.
Russia has significantly more nukes than the US now, which surprised me. Though I guess beyond a certain number it’s all quite academic.
It isn’t a state level decision for that to happen though. All it takes is some dumb fuck with a rocket launcher or whatever, and there’s a lot of people with those in Ukraine who can free fire at this point. Shit the Lusitania was probably a legit military target, but it didn’t matter. It broadened the war.
Yeah and you had strong players on both sides. That doesn’t happen here unless China agrees to fight with Russia. Otherwise it’s the whole world against Russia and Belarus.
The Ukraine reported 137 Ukrainian deaths including civilians. At the same time they are supposed to have killed 2800 Russians. Injuries usually exceed deaths so the Ukrainian forces have neutralized ~10% of the invading force in one day? I remain skeptical.
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I think I saw ~6200 to ~5500? It’s pretty academic at that point, I agree, and common consensus seems to be that America’s are much better maintained than theirs.
The reality is almost certainly that Ukraine will report the lowest possible number of their own deaths and overestimate number of Russian deaths, and the inverse is true of Russia which as of last night claimed it hadn’t lost any aircraft at all.
Probably 200-400 Ukrainians killed and probably like 700-1,000 Russians killed would be my ballpark guess.
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497266678601859081?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1497266678601859081|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_4fca8d70-9663-11ec-b1fb-5a2cbd171549%2F0
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/events_67375.htm
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I thought we were already doing that.
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497267333890514944
This crosses Russia’s line in the sand, I think. Go fuck yourself, Putin.
Is this verified?
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497266678601859081
Ok here’s a blue check at least. Damn. Shit getting real.
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morale is sky high on day 2 anyway
months from now though, yeah that would help
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1497267663617212417
Ok wait. Whatever they’re being supplied.
The West certainly seems terrified about cyber attacks.
No it isn’t lol. Our politics were bought out by corporate interests decades ago and if you can’t see that I can’t help you.
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I really hope you’re right. Obviously we don’t know, but I just have a pessimistic outlook these days.
My pessimistic hypothetical:
The path to some sort of serious, sudden escalation starts with a stalemate or at least serious continued fighting. Russia doesn’t make enough gains that Putin can save face, so he continues the war with resupplies.
NATO then starts resupplying Ukraine. Reports are that this is happening already:
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497266678601859081?s=20&t=kFtsQAT_GS4Tt0wxA0lNmw
Russia could view this as a legitimate military target, and frankly, it is a legitimate military target. Russia wants to cut off these supplies as they desperately want air superiority for their troops, fires on some resupply vehicle/plane/whatever a mile into Poland. NATO responds, Russia responds, and we’re holding our butts.
Crafty. NATO tells countries to supply; countries say it’s their own decision.
Not happy about the escalation though.
Can those air defenses get to Kyiv in time to save it?
It seems like it will be 100x harder to force Putin out of Kyiv once he’s embedded than to keep him out in the first place.