Ukraine, Russia, and the West

Yes. And then what? Putin says, “well played, chaps, I surrender. of course I won’t be using any of these nukes”?

I’m not saying he’ll defo nuke New York if he’s backed into a corner but I’m pretty sure it’s in his range. And that makes doing the right thing here while limiting escalation a tough needle to thread.

Yeah, it’s problem.

https://twitter.com/JamesAALongman/status/1511425069372817410

Lol at nits trying to do risk-free foreign policy.

It seems like Ukraine has some memory of the last time they were really under the thumb of the Russians and 3M died, so they aren’t going to fight for a stalemate. There seem to be a lot more Ukrainians willing to die than Russians, and they are running out of Russians. I would bet $20 Putin will announce an end to the war within the next month.

I will take that action.

Booked.
(Only doing 1.)

Fuck. I would have been all over that.

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The Russians are only killing all men of military age they find. IT’S NOT GENOCIDE. There are no mobile crematoriums. Everyone just needs to calm down.

Russians will be happy to breed with the widows.

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Putin never announces the end of the war. Maybe the end of the special military operation or whatever, but that’s different.

I have a feeling volunteers in Bucha resisted at first, and therefore the whole town was made into an example. Leaving the bodies lying in the street was deliberate to scare the local residents into not resisting. Not cleaning them up when they left was to send a message to any future towns about what happens to those who resist.

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1511378262198530052

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1511378830526935041

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1511379189735337991

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1511379519512498181

Nah for sure he’s going to make an announcement saying the special operation is over at some point. Everyone wants their ‘Mission Accomplished’ banner moment, but whether that means things are going to go back to normalized relations is another thing.

Calling Biden NC for not wanting to jump into a shooting war with a country loaded with nuclear weapons that is led by a fucking monster is a spicy take.

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Fwiw. NC gets a bad rap.

NC in 1939 was much more like Biden today. Facing bad choices to try and prevent a war they knew would be as bad or as worse as WW1. Which was in very recent memory.

Churchill was a racist war hungry psychopath. But he had his “even a stopped clock is right twice a day” moment in WW2.

the prospect of fighting even 100k of Nato troops would be completely unsustainable for putin. it’s already almost exhausted its potential by fighting a defensively sound UA which is half volunteers. i don’t know how many F-22s it would take to close the sky over ukraine and the black sea, but i am assuming it’s equivalent to 100k troops. between other nato nations in the region, US would likely be responsible for half of it. the RU army is at its weakest point in decades, and for decades to come. russia has done everything to draw nato into the conflict. at what point is there going to be a better time to actually go help ukraine? after the midterms?

many smarter more informed people have said that suicide by nuclear is not in putin’s range. they are also terrified of being wrong.

Yes it seems like Fox copied a model, didn’t invent the genre.

Russia is also clearly in the wrong in a sovereign nation they just invaded. There may never be a better chance to attack and still have the moral high ground.

The next time Putin invades a country it will probably be invited in by a puppet government that’s about to collapse or some other pretense that muddies the waters. We may look back on this moment as the best chance to change history.

I’m not saying I know closing the sky or boots on the ground is correct. Just that I can see where the West might look back and wish we’d done more at this moment.

“america eventually does the right thing” is a churchill quote, no? well, yeah, we are right there i guess.

I think some of you are confused about the West’s objective, which is still the same as it was at the start of this: Get back to business as usual as soon as possible; weaken Putin but recognize you can’t force him out. Once the situation on the ground is stabilized, the foot is coming off the accelerator on weapons coming from NATO. It was never going to be a great situation for Ukraine. The country is likely to remain divided until some time after Putin is gone, however and whenever that happens.

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Who wins if Putin dies by cancer or coup in less than a month?