the prospect of fighting even 100k of Nato troops would be completely unsustainable for putin. it’s already almost exhausted its potential by fighting a defensively sound UA which is half volunteers. i don’t know how many F-22s it would take to close the sky over ukraine and the black sea, but i am assuming it’s equivalent to 100k troops. between other nato nations in the region, US would likely be responsible for half of it. the RU army is at its weakest point in decades, and for decades to come. russia has done everything to draw nato into the conflict. at what point is there going to be a better time to actually go help ukraine? after the midterms?
many smarter more informed people have said that suicide by nuclear is not in putin’s range. they are also terrified of being wrong.
Russia is also clearly in the wrong in a sovereign nation they just invaded. There may never be a better chance to attack and still have the moral high ground.
The next time Putin invades a country it will probably be invited in by a puppet government that’s about to collapse or some other pretense that muddies the waters. We may look back on this moment as the best chance to change history.
I’m not saying I know closing the sky or boots on the ground is correct. Just that I can see where the West might look back and wish we’d done more at this moment.
I think some of you are confused about the West’s objective, which is still the same as it was at the start of this: Get back to business as usual as soon as possible; weaken Putin but recognize you can’t force him out. Once the situation on the ground is stabilized, the foot is coming off the accelerator on weapons coming from NATO. It was never going to be a great situation for Ukraine. The country is likely to remain divided until some time after Putin is gone, however and whenever that happens.
On Tuesday, the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, proposed broad new sanctions on Russia, European officials said, including a ban on imports of Russian coal, slashing the access of Russian road and shipping goods carriers into the bloc, targeting oligarchs and their families and blocking some machinery exports.
The measures will need backing from the bloc’s 27 member states. Meanwhile, the U.S. plans Wednesday to announce a new package of sanctions that would include a ban on all new investment in Russia, according to people familiar with the matter.
More in-depth look at new financial measures against Russia
Investors priced in the higher likelihood of a Russian default, said a U.S.-based fund manager. The price on Russia’s 4.875% bond due in September 2023 fell by 25% Tuesday to about 36 cents on the dollar, while its 5.875% bond due in 2043 dropped 20% to roughly 27 cents on the dollar, he said.
I know this has been said by others, but these types of steps really are economic warfare.
This account is a bit sketchy so take it with a grain of salt. The implicit claim here is that Ukraine has taken Nova Kakhova and blocked the Russians’ escape.
But anyway the reason I posted is that somehow I imagined that in 2022 rivers wouldn’t still be a key component of war. But here we are.
when peace process happens, the floor for ukraine’s status is “neutral with security guarantees”. on feb 24th the status was “neutral”. that’s not nato membership, but it’s not nothing at all.
vehicles isn’t what is stopping ukraine in donbass. territorial advances need weapons of aggression, most modern ones are missiles. but also air support.
tanks are sometimes needed when enemy is defending to the last man in urban environments. however, if russia was defending a captured city, they are more likely to surrender or retreat, rather than become surrounded. it’s a tall order to pull off what azov is doing.
In light of the Russian sanctions, I’ve been thinking about what Western multinationals I would most and least like to become a military power…
[Cliffs: when Pepsi first entered the Soviet market, the Ruble couldn’t be freely exchanged for dollars, so they set up a barter system where the USSR would get Pepsi and Pepsi Co. would receive Soviet made Stoli vodka for distribution in the US. Eventually the balance of trade got so out of whack that the Soviets started trading old surplus naval vessels and oil tankers. Apparently, they weren’t very seaworthy and Pepsi basically just sold them for scrap, but it’s still a fun story].
