If it comes to a choice of throwing Vance or Rubio under the bus, who is it? Rubio huge favorite I guess.
1 Like
5 Likes
I guess there’s a European/Ukrainian counter proposal now. The best way to push it has got to be to present it in Russian.
1 Like
https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1992656044447916279
https://x.com/UkrReview/status/1992713953794019384?s=20
I am convinced this entire thing is a russian psy ops. Vitkoff and Vance were asked to submit a russian plan without discussing with rubio (and getting trump’s blessing last minute in order to prevent rubio from learning of it) because they knew anyone reasonable would point out this plan is too dumb and kill the idea.
There is no serious attempt at a peace deal here. It is to keep Ukraine fighting in Pokrovsk, despite taking too many casualties. Because they will fear losing that losing a major town and moving the front line 15-20km back will put them in an unfavorable position during negotiations, Ukraine will stay past when they should retreat. Very similar happened with Avdiivka and Kursk.
I dont even think putin would accept the treaty, but since for some reason it is Ukraine discussing it with USA for whatever reason we dont even know. USA is negotiating on behalf of russia, for a deal russia probably wont even accept, in order to help russia collapse Ukraine’s front.
1 Like
28 point plan now 19 points after EU#1 intervention and the ruskies not too happy (UNGRATEFUL) ;)
US and Ukrainian officials met in Geneva on Sunday to discuss the plan which had been drafted by American and Russian officials in October, and caused consternation in Kyiv and among its European allies.
A Kremlin official rejected the amendments on Monday as “completely unconstructive”.
Zelensky said on Monday evening that the revised plan was “truly the right approach”.
“The sensitive issues, the most delicate points, I will discuss with President Trump,” he added, without saying when.
According to an official in Zelensky’s office, the 28-point plan leaked on Friday no longer existed.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergiy Kyslytsa, who attended the weekend talks in Geneva, said the latest plan consisted of just 19 points, with some of the most politically sensitive elements, including territorial concessions, now due to be decided by the leaders themselves.
A virtual “coalition of the willing” meeting of Ukraine’s European allies will take place on Tuesday to discuss developments, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced.
There was, he said, still work to do for a “just and lasting peace” in Ukraine.
In Moscow, Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters: “The European plan, at first glance… is completely unconstructive and does not work for us.”
The counter-proposals - reportedly drafted by Britain, France and Germany - excluded any recognition of Russian-held regions, raised Ukraine’s allowed army size and left the door open to Ukraine joining Nato.
Now we have ‘tremendous progress’, not a capitulation
The text is as follows:
1. Ukraine’s sovereignty to be reconfirmed.
2. There will be a total and complete non-aggression agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine and NATO. All ambiguities from the last 30 years will be resolved.
(Point 3 of U.S. plan is deleted. A draft of that plan seen by Reuters said: “There will be the expectation that Russia will not invade its neighbours and NATO will not expand further.”)
4. After a peace agreement is signed, a dialogue between Russia and NATO will convene to address all security concerns and create a de-escalatory environment to ensure global security and increase the opportunity for connectivity and future economic opportunity.
5. Ukraine will receive robust Security Guarantees
6. Size of Ukraine military to be capped at 800,000 in peacetime.
7. Ukraine joining NATO depends on consensus of NATO members, which does not exist.
8. NATO agrees not to permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime.
9. NATO fighter jets will be stationed in Poland
10. US guarantee that mirrors Article 5
a. US to receive compensation for the guarantee
b. If Ukraine invades Russia, it forfeits the guarantee
c. If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a robust coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be restored and any kind of recognition for the new territory and all other benefits from this agreement will be withdrawn.
11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will get short-term preferred market access to Europe while this is being evaluated
12. Robust Global Redevelopment Package for Ukraine including but not limited to:
a. Creation of Ukraine Development fund to invest in high growth industries including technology, data centres and Al efforts
b. The United States will partner with Ukraine to jointly restore, grow, modernize and operate Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, which includes its pipeline and storage facilities
c. A joint effort to redevelop areas impacted by the war to restore, redevelop and modernize cities and residential areas
d. Infrastructure development
e. Mineral and natural resource extraction
f. A special financing package will be developed by the World Bank to provide financing to accelerate these efforts.
13. Russia to be progressively re-integrated into the global economy
a. Sanction relief will be discussed and agreed upon in phases and on a case-by-case basis.
b. The United States will enter into a long-term Economic Cooperation Agreement to pursue mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, AI, datacenters, rare earths, joint projects in the Arctic, as well as various other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
c. Russia to be invited back into the G8
14. Ukraine will be fully reconstructed and compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates damage to Ukraine.
15. A joint Security taskforce will be established with the participation of US, Ukraine, Russia and the Europeans to promote and enforce all of the provisions of this agreement
16. Russia will legislatively enshrine a non-aggression policy towards Europe and Ukraine
17. The United States and Russia agree to extend nuclear non-proliferation and control treaties, including Fair Start
18. Ukraine agrees to remain a non-nuclear state under the NPT
19. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant will be restarted under supervision of the IAEA, and the produced power shall be shared equitably in a 50-50 split between Russia and Ukraine.
20. Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.
21. Territories
Ukraine commits not to recover its occupied sovereign territory through military means. Negotiations on territorial swaps will start from the Line of Contact.
22. Once future territorial arrangements have been agreed, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply if there is a breach of this obligation
23. Russia shall not obstruct Ukraine’s use of the Dnieper River for purposes of commercial activities, and agreements will be reached for grain shipments to move freely through the Black Sea
24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve open issues:
a. All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on the principle of All for All
b. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children
c. There will be a family reunification program
d. Provisions will be made to address the suffering of victims from the conflict
25. Ukraine will hold elections as soon as possible after the signing of the peace agreement.
26. Provision will be made to address the suffering of victims of the conflict.
27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a Board of Peace, chaired by President Donald J. Trump. There will be penalties for violation.
28. Upon all sides agreeing to this memorandum, a ceasefire will be immediately effective upon both parties withdrawing to the agreed upon points for the implementation of the agreement to begin. Ceasefire modalities, including monitoring, will be agreed by both parties under US supervision.
https://x.com/dubowy_alex/status/1992962468268630522
The fallacy lies in assuming that Russia has any maximum or minimum demands at all. The Kremlin does not operate with a negotiable list of demands, but with fixed strategic goals that have remained unchanged since February 24, 2022: the elimination of Ukrainian statehood in its current form, permanent territorial control over certain regions, the political subjugation of Kyiv, and the elimination of Western influence, not merely the purely theoretical NATO accession of Ukraine.
At no point has Putin even hinted that there is any room for negotiation. On the contrary: all official documents, speeches, and lists of demands boil down to a single principle – “eliminating the root causes of the conflict.” And these so-called “root causes,” from the Russian perspective, consist of the simple existence of an independent Ukraine and the European security order as it has existed since 1991.
Against this backdrop, any attempt to allow Moscow a face-saving exit is doomed to failure. Without military and sanctions-based coercion, the Kremlin will accept nothing that does not amount to the capitulation of Ukraine and a revision of the European security architecture.
The question, therefore, is not whether Russia could accept a compromise text, but why the West has for years been trying to serve the logic of an actor who publicly declares that it has no interest whatsoever in a compromise solution.
This is really well said. Currently these “peace negotiations” are set up so Ukraine always loses since their only options are capitulate or anger Trump. There is currently not a security guarantee that would mean anything: European security guarantee is a joke, Trump’s word doesn’t mean anything, and since Trump’s word means nothing even article 5 isn’t enough (and there’s no way Ukraine will be allowed to join NATO).
The only way these negotiations go anywhere is if Europe sits down and says “russia, this is why your position will be worse in 6 months.” Until then, they’re just offering terms russia will never accept in the hope that Trump doesn’t pull the last of the aid USA is providing. It’s not genuine, it’s kicking the can down the road.
With America no longer helping, in order to give a credible threat Europe would have to drastically increase aid or enter the war. As ridiculous as that second option sounds, I don’t think it’s much more unrealistic than Europe giving the necessary aid to help Ukraine.
Last year Kofman described this stage of the war using an Eastern European saying “As the fat man grows lean, the thin man starts to die.” I think it’s still accurate. USA is working for russia, Europe is not getting their act together, Ukraine is failing to address their manpower issues, and russia is fine starving if it means hurting their “brothers” more.
I don’t see anything getting resolved anytime soon.
1 Like
All ambiguities from the last 30 years will be resolved.
Sounds easy!
1 Like
that seemed pretty obvious from the jump
1 Like
With this admin it’s difficult to tell if it’s incompetence which functions as a russian psy ops.
3 Likes
https://x.com/clashreport/status/1993417284489289897
https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1993422282639720549
Transcript:
I’m sure nothing comes of it, but good to see a republican saying what should be obvious to everyone:
https://x.com/RepDonBacon/status/1993446393076498714?s=20
Vitkoff has pissed off so many people that there’s a hundred suspects for who is leaking this, but I’d bet on Rubio.
1 Like
There is still a part of me that refuses to believe these people are this stupid.
1 Like
Calls to fire Whitkoff after the “leaks” are aimed at derailing the modest progress toward a settlement in Ukraine, Peskov said in a conversation with Rossiya TV journalist Zarubin.
Trump’s saying it’s standard negotiating for Witkoff to do this. Yeah, sure, genius-level even.
2 Likes
commercial and economic plans the Trump admin had been pursuing with Russia.”
EU apparently pressuring Zelenskyy over Yermak too:
https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1994428492709015845?s=20
https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1994429659669299204
Wow I didn’t think it would happen:
2 Likes
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1995087206982066356
I believe this is the former ambassador to USA, or the facepalm lady from Vance’s ambush.
Seems like a very conservative choice.
1 Like
New weapons against Russian KABs are being tested in Ukraine, - General Staff.
Details of the weapons are not disclosed, but they note: from September to November, air defense units have already shot down about 100 KABs.
This is pretty crazy. russia began the war with a huge stockpile of dumb bombs. They attached kits onto them to make them guide bombs, and have been using them since. They are not extremely accurate, but the explosions are huge and last year areas on the front were getting hit 50+ times a day. I haven’t seen stats this year, but I imagine it’s in the same range. It would be a huge deal if Ukraine can actually come up with a way to counter this.
Here’s a video from outside of Pokrovsk a few weeks ago:
Ground drone against an enemy MT-LB in the 5th Assault Brigade: a night battle that thwarted the occupiers’ assault.
At night, the enemy was preparing an assault on the positions of the 5th Assault Brigade. Our crews put the “Droid” ground combat platforms with a large-caliber machine gun into operation.
One of the operators detected an MT-LB with a landing force moving directly into the sector of destruction on the thermal imager. The 12.7 mm rounds pierced the vehicle’s side, hitting the crew and assault infantry. The damaged vehicle, having lost control, passed a few centimeters from the drone and stopped after repeated hits to the rear.
Result: an MT-LB was destroyed, enemy infantry was eliminated, and the assault was thwarted.
The 5th Assault Brigade continues to implement the latest technologies and change the rules of modern warfare.
Together — to Victory.
AUDIO WARNING
I think Ukraine explores this more and more as they try to adopt to russia’s tactics. Their goal is to pretty much have a ground force that isn’t reliant on troops actually fighting. Obviously an extremely lofty goal, but they are attempting it.
https://x.com/markito0171/status/1998662892325908616?s=20
I’m guessing these are cluster bomblets.
Regarding my post on Myrnohrad earlier: There’s apparently still fighting going on there, despite the withdrawals. I’m guessing some kind of a skeleton crew tasked with holding it as long as possible.
1 Like
Nice low risk ambush with these cannons sitting by the side of the road. Devastating defensive weapon.
2 Likes