Great read on Pokrovsk:
https://twitter-thread.com/t/1986115178283327841
Great read on how the strategy of defending cities has changed since the start of the war:
The bastards are trying to “squeeze” into the Pokrovsk—Kurakhove “railway line,” have advanced about “±1 kilometer” inward, “Smerchi and Uragans” are working intensively, and the orcs have also strengthened with assault companies “storm—z”. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have conducted successful rotations and reinforced units with reserves in some areas. We are working—holding on!
Very surprising to me that Ukraine had reserves, I hope it’s true.
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1986748458943000746?s=20
(Myrnohrad is the pocket where Ukraine’s troops are in an awful situation. There’s more about it midway through the following thread as well. The entire thing is worth a read if you are following Pokrovsk. Cliffs: days to weeks before it falls most likely.)
https://x.com/clement_molin/status/1987184143432564817?s=20
Russia’s strikes on energy:
https://x.com/andrii_sybiha/status/1987251530144096691?s=20
Supposedly an interceptor hitting a shahed, I’m not 100% sure that it is though:
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In recent days, the Russians have intensified their efforts to penetrate Pokrovsk using light equipment through the southern outskirts. To do this, the enemy used adverse weather conditions, in particular thick fog. This reduces the possibilities for our aerial reconnaissance and destruction in open terrain.
Currently, there are more than 300 Russians in the city. Their goal remains unchanged - to reach the northern borders of Pokrovsk with a subsequent attempt to surround the agglomeration.
At the same time, the Defense Forces continue to identify and destroy enemy groups in urban development even in conditions of low visibility. Since the beginning of November, the Defense Forces have eliminated 162 Russians in Pokrovsk, another 39 – have been wounded. Various units of the Defense Forces – BPS, assault and amphibious assault units, SSO, SBU, National Guard, National Police and others continue to be involved in the clearing of the city.
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1988008108883669266?s=20
It doesn’t say it in the tweet, but I’m assuming the tank is being used due to the fog as well.
I was hoping the next time there was bad (good?) weather that it would be used to evacuate the Ukrainians in that pocket, but it doesn’t look like it’s happening yet.
Now a drone-hunter drone is in the air — a special drone designed to detect, pursue and destroy enemy vehicles.
Here’s a less high tech method:
Several shaheds hitting Kharkiv:
https://x.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1988520765637926939?s=20
Economy:
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1988597515273289803
She’s a miracle worker, but sounds like russia is finally hitting a point where she can’t help.
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The Defense Forces of Ukraine have left a large territory south of Myrnohrad • The southern part of the city and Sukhy Yar have been almost completely abandoned."
No idea if anyone else was invested in this, but it’s great news. Pretty sure they did end up making use of the fog.
I (and others way more knowledgable than myself) were afraid this would be another event similar to the retreat from Adviidka. It was a disaster with people running kilometers across an area surrounded on 3 sides with artillery and drones hounding them. Injured, and some surrounded troops, had to be abandoned. So far there’s nothing suggesting that, so hopefully this went far better.
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https://x.com/clement_molin/status/1989745559515648438
Easier to read format:
https://twitter-thread.com/t/1989745559515648438
Bleak assessment of the current state of the war:
5/ Russia’s Contemporary Asymmetric Advantages. Russia has now developed overlapping asymmetric advantages:
-Russia continues to lead in systemic and strategic adaptation.
-Russia is now probably better (marginally) in tactical adaptation and doing it systematically along the front line.
-Russia now has a small advantage with frontline drone operations, especially with the establishment and proliferation of Rubicon drone units.
-Russia’s manpower advantage is long-standing.
-Russian FPV drones with fiber-optics have excellent cameras—developing high-definition battlespace imagery for targeting.
-Russian operational-level command and control is probably more systemic and effective than Ukraine’s.
-Tactical aviation fires is a final area where Russia has an advantage, especially with long-range (and getting longer) glide bombs.Each of these advantages is a concern for #Ukraine. But this is the first time in this war that this many overlapping strategic and tactical asymmetries have favored Russia. To use a well-worn metaphor, Russia is lining up the holes in the Swiss cheese.
Key questions are: How does Ukraine hold on? And why isn’t Russia more successful?
https://x.com/WarintheFuture/status/1990584920318906618?s=20
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It seems like the Russian economy is on the brink of collapse, but they still have a lot of meat for the grinder, apparently. What are your thoughts?
I don’t think the russian economy will collapse, I think there will be a lot of small to medium fires they have to put out, but I think the majority of the damage will be felt long term and not in a sudden collapse. Hoping to be wrong of course.
I haven’t followed russia’s recruitment numbers for awhile. The last thing I recall seeing was St Petersburg lower the signup bonus a few months ago, which I think means they are still getting more than enough recruits. They are also losing a ton with the current tactics, so I doubt they will be able to gain a huge advantage, but they also slowing down.
Ukraine has not fixed their manpower issues. They had over 20k AWOL in October, so the trend is very bad. I don’t think Ukraine collapses, but I think we’re about to enter a period where they lose land at a much faster rate.
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Russian economy had been the only way to victory for Ukraine for a while now and it holding up defies all predictions. It could be that India and China are keeping the Russia economy going but not sure what they are getting in exchange as nuclear and missile technologies doesn’t seem to be enough.
Anders Puck Nielsen doesn’t see Ukraine collapsing but also doesn’t think Russian economic troubles are enough to make Putin stop anytime soon. Despite the pressure they’re currently exerting, he doesn’t think Russia made significant progress this year. This is why they’re desperate for a victory in Pokrovsk before the new year. It could become a frozen conflict, though it would look different from previous examples of that outcome. Here’s his Q&A video. It’s an hour so maybe skip to about the 45 minute mark if you just want his summary/predictions.
A lot of the larger content creators who speak about Ukraine tend to undersell bad things. Anders is extremely accurate on many things, but I think he falls into this category along with Broe and others.
When russia first infiltrated Pokrovsk, the scale of the infiltration was downplayed because they weren’t taking into account changes in tactics.
When it was clear that Pokrvosk was infiltrated, some content creators started referencing things like Bakhmut, and how long it took to conquer it without taking new tactics into consideration.
Now that Pokrovsk is going to fall, they’re still referencing things like how slow the entire campaign to conquer Pokrovsk was. They are still not taking the new tactics into consideration. It is a major question if russia has adapted to the Ukrainian adaptations which made russia stall for a year.
I don’t think anyone knows what it’s going to look like when Pokrovsk falls.
I think at the very least, we will see a rapid loss of land compared to the past few years, which while not catastrophic and still slow, isn’t great. Whether or not there’s other Pokrovsks or Avdiivkas that will stall the advance when they’re reached is a major question, and I think with the current tactics, even if they do exist they won’t be able to last as long.
This may be true but it’s also possible to over-focus on current events, making the overall situation seem more grim than it is. I’ve had to stop following quite so closely. It’s depressing.
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The only thing I see are interviews with experts and it seems it doesnt look good. Manpower is a big concern. I think a lot of politicians took Trumps talk of peace as an opportunity to not care anymore. Having one package of sanctions after another and hoping that this time it will end the war is close to insanity.
https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1991869259887132752
Exclusive: US threatens to cut intel, weapons to press Ukraine into peace deal, sources say
Zelensky published an appeal to the Ukrainian people.
Now is one of the most difficult moments in our history. Now Ukraine may face a very difficult choice: either loss of dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner. Or difficult 28 points, or an extremely difficult winter, the most difficult, and further risks. Life without freedom, dignity and justice and for us to believe the one who has attacked twice already. They will expect an answer from us.
It seems like trump’s admin really means it this time. There’s a lot of speculation as to the timing of this (beyond epstein distraction). Ukraine is about to lose Pokrovsk, and a place in Zapo and Kharkiv as well.
Meanwhile the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) investigation (which Zelenskyy tried to stop a few months ago) has revealed a major scandal involving people stealing money given for Ukraine’s energy. The Minister of Energy resigned, and others have been arrested or fled. So there’s a lot of external and internal pressure on Zelenskyy at the moment, and there’s good reason to believe that Trump is taking advantage of this to force a deal that Ukraine considers unacceptable.
What are the chances Zelensky is ousted? Who would replace him and with what policies?
I don’t think there’s a serious chance that Zelenskyy gets ousted. Zelenskyy is still viewed as a hero and no one wants him out.
(I don’t think anyone who is not Ukrainian or extremely in touch with Ukraine’s politics can really understand this, but here’s my opinion.) Most Ukrainians want Yermak ousted. He was Zelenskyy’s manager when Zelenskyy was still an actor, and then became his head of government. It’s hard to overstate the distrust Ukrainians have towards him. Anytime there’s a scandal most people support Zelenskyy but say Yermak needs to go.
At the same time, I don’t think anyone truly knows just how much Yermak is actually running things, and there’s not a clear candidate to take over his role. So it’s possible that even though he’s hated, he’s still better than nothing.
The closest example I can think of is that Yermak is to Zelenskyy as what Musk was to Trump at the start of this year.
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Here’s an article which really goes into this. It’s long though
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https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/1992372774145548783?s=20
https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/1992330908729561558?s=20
https://x.com/mrsorokaa/status/1992241203170201738
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1992290709324357633
Absolute morons. I wonder how much of this is true. There is absolutely no communication between the admin apparently, which isn’t surprising I guess, but I didn’t think it could possible be this bad.
It sounds like Witkoff and Vance did this, Trump followed through because of course he loves to give ultimatums, there was (extremely predictable) pushback from anyone with even a tiny bit of understanding of the situation, Rubio comes out and says it’s an extremely dumb plan and it’s not a serious proposal despite the steps taken toward forcing it.
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Laughable clown show
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