Poland had a GDP just under a trillion and a serious industrial base. They are legit threatened by Russia.
Poland is the 5th/6th largest economy in Europe
I think these drones are an accident, getting Poland to get more involved in Ukraine would be a massive misstep.
For reference. Russia GDP is 2 trillion. On a par with Italy and a 10th of the EU as a whole. Which again highlights that the only reason Russia didn’t get crushed in Ukraine is because of a lack of WIM by the Euros.
Three years ago I could imagine Russian tanks rolling through Poland. Now one tank even getting to Poland seems highly unlikely.
ukraine’s gdp is not even 200 billion and we’ve seen russia’s military. I’d take Poland right now as long as the war is in poland.
The Russian military is the largest in Europe, about the same size as non US NATO combined. The only reason Ukraine hasn’t been rolled is they’re 2nd.
The were the largest at some point, certainly not today with how bad their personnel and equipment have been destroyed over the last 3 years. It is 2025 in no way is the number of meat shields determining the size of a military and that is all they have going for them.
The US may help Poland if Russia invades but the rest of Europe will. I can’t imagine that working out well for anyone in the region, particularly the Russian army.
I think the biggest issue is if Poland steps up its support for Ukraine.
I guess it’s maybe a warning? I.e. back down from Ukraine and/or support a pro Russian settlement. Or else get dragged into a wider war.
I think Jake Broe is right: It’s sowing political division and polarization. Putin hopes it diminishes support for Ukraine; he might be right.
The most convincing theory I’ve seen regarding Russia invading a Nato country is that it would be a small land grab while attempting to avoid a larger conflict. I realize this is quite lol worthy as we in year 3 of what was supposed to be a 3 day war, but there are some things which make it a real possibility.
The idea would be to blitz a city or area that most of Europe would find inconsequential, dig in similar to what russia has done in eastern Ukraine with the Surovikin Line, and then lob missiles/shaheds at anyone who helped the country regain their territory.
Putin, and really all of Russia, is convinced the “decadent west” cannot stomach war. If he was able to hold on to this area and threaten Europe (and USA if it is on Europe’s side still) then it’s possible that Nato countries refuse article 5 and the alliance is essentially over. This would leave Russia free to coerce some countries into joining them similar to Belarus, and also pick off the weaker countries one by one militarily.
I personally find it pretty likely. Russia has proven that they are capable at grabbing an area and fortifying it. I dont think a European response would be quick, and then they’d have to mobilize and attack an area that is considered worthless to most and fortified to inflict horrendous casualties.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive was a disaster. Russia used far more mines than Nato advisors predicted, there was a horrendous clip of a Ukrainian group that is trying to retrieve a comrade who stepped on a mine, and several of them end up maimed from mines while getting to him. Entire trenches were rigged to explode when Ukrainians entered them. They also had extremely effective strategies where Russia’s cannon fodder would be in the trenches, but were expected to die and lose the troop, then more experienced russian troops would counter attack with a major advantage as Ukraine had not established logistics. This use of cannon fodder is probably the most important aspect in this hypothetical scenario:
Russia has a far different approach to the value of a life. Putin does not care about the majority of his troops, or citizens. He said it is better to die in the war than drink oneself to death; that is how he feels about the average russian who signs up. They are expendable. He is more than willing to accept large losses of life, while most Europeans would not be, especially for western Europeans taking back a meaningless area of land in Eastern Europe.
The non military aspect seems even more grim. It’s easy to imagine why many people would vote for ignoring article 5 over putting their children to sleep in a bathtub for extra protection from nightly shaheds. I do not think many citizens could stomach what people in Kyiv go through regularly.
Sorry for the ramblings. What I’m getting at is that these hypothetical wars aren’t so much about if a country, or all of Nato, can outmatch Russia in a long war. It’s about Russia’s ability to manage escalation, and even a loss means that they just retreat back to current lines and say they will nuke if they realize they miscalculated and Nato does unite.
The most likely purpose of a russian invasion of a country like Poland is to grab land, hold it, and make life hell for anyone who helps. This would be done in the hope of drastically changing the geopolitical landscape of eastern Europe making it easier for russia to pick off smaller neighbors and expand.
This means the major factors would be a country’s ability to defend against a blitz (I dont think any country can at this moment), and then the ability of Europe to unite, counterattack, and deal with the losses. Considering Europe’s failures to meaningfully rearm or supply Ukraine 3 years into the conflict, this is questionable as well.
The line Tusk claims has been crossed has been crossed repeatedly since early on in the war. I think he is trying to keep Ukraine in the news, and also use his limited means to escalate aid to Ukraine. The Baltic states are all the most active in this, but also need their own militaries strong as the threat of invasion is real, and they do not have the resources of western Europe.
Ultimately this is probably just going to result in what Europe has done since the start of the war: convene meetings where little is accomplished.
I mostly agree but don’t think Putin is ready to go as far as grabbing land in a NATO country, though ofc I’m not sure what he will do with a green light from Trump and backing from China, NK, and now India.
I think it’s a few years off at least, largely due to Ukraine. Baltic states and all countries bordering russia are already preparing, and have very short timelines for when russia could be ready to attack.
My personal conspiracy theory is that Putin thought he would steamroll Ukraine, then he would invade a Nato country at the same time China attacked Taiwan. That could still happen, but the timeline and goals for such an attack has been pushed back for russia at least.
In some ways russia is already preparing. Most estimates are that they produce somewhere around 250-350 t90s a year, but russia hardly uses tanks in Ukraine anymore. This could just be regular reconstitution, or it could be preparation for another offensive soon.
Two years I could see. Would line up with what China wants to do in Taiwan. Ukraine is standing in their way.
My girlfriend’s grandmother, who’s still around at 87 or 88, was also among those deported to Siberia.
So where are we discussing the Russian incursions? Here or continental Europe thread?
Either way. There has to be a response.
I think that every time Russia does something they should pledge another round of funding and weapons to Ukraine.
This is Denmark’s fault for aggressively joining NATO when Russia poses no threat to them whatsoever. They must immediately cede Scheswig-Holstein to Russia as the price of peace!
/mearscheimer
In all seriousness, the fact that Poland didn’t start shooting down drones over Western Ukraine and Estonia didn’t shoot down those Russian jets paved the way for further escalations. The bad news is that we seem to be on a road towards direct military conflict between Russia and NATO. The good news, I guess, is that it won’t actually be World War III because Trump isn’t going to honor Article 5.
I literally think there are zero realistic scenarios of Russian aggression towards Europe where Trump would honor Article 5. So yeah, it’s dead as a dodo.
I mean this is all game theory stuff. Tit for tat.
You should only hit the “punish us both” button if there’s isn’t an option to punish the opponent and help yourself.
Funding Ukraine does that.