https://x.com/RALee85/status/1789736250540191783
“The big loser in this shuffle appears to be Patrushev, who was also one of the key decisionmakers behind the invasion of Ukraine.”
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There’s interesting background in that podcast episode. Thanks.
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Kinda looks like the Black Fleet is getting its shit kicked in rn.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1791282297309970700
and the trains???
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Zelensky is saying they have adequate artillery rounds for now. This is disputed but hopefully ammunition is reaching the areas it’s needed.
They still need to find a way to increase manpower. Those measures won’t be popular. One is to use prisoners. Another is to increase fines for those who don’t show up.
Thoughts on whether Russia’s near term objective is 1) to retake Kharkiv 2) to form a buffer zone 3) to create a diversion or 4) is unclear because it’s incoherent and a bad plan. Nielsen leans toward bad plan.
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I think Russia is just keeping Ukraine under pressure and doesn’t care about short term goals. Their strategic goal is to win by attrition based on their population advantage. Russian economy seems to hold up and the only other threat to Russia is Western boots on the ground in Ukraine which is extremely unlikely even just for logistics and defense.
Russia can probably keep this up longer than the west is willing to keep sending money.
From the Ukraine side, would the thinking be that they just need to outlast Putin himself? If he croaks, I’m wondering what the chances are his successor just does a quiet withdrawal with some face-saving rationale about how they freed Ukraine of its evil Nazi factions and that’s all they really cared about.
Ukraine needs the Russian economy to tank massively as I have no idea who will take over from Putin and if they will retreat and very unlikely they will give back Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Saudi Arabia, India and China are keeping the Russian economy afloat currently. Saudis are losing market share as they are doing the most cuts to keep oil prices up so that could change short term. India loves its cheap oil and money from re-exporting sanctioned goods so won’t change and China has no reason to change its position either.
Ukraine is not going to win this by force either after not making enough ground in the short period where they had some operational advantages.
But where does it end? Seems hard to imagine Putin successfully rolling tanks into Kyiv at this point and also hard to imagine him just giving up. So this just going to go forever?
Western support dries up and Russian tanks into Kyiv is one possible outcome. A forced peace agreement where Russia gets Crimea and Eastern Ukraine and the rest of Ukraine joins NATO is another. But I think this war can continue like this for years as nobody really wants either of those outcomes and not enough people care about Ukranians and Russians dying.
I want NATO to take over air defense of western Ukraine with boots on the ground so that at least civilians there can live a normal life until oil/gas prices crash and Russia goes broke.
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Stakes could be going up
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If ATACMS they might be going after the air defense systems defending the bridge. Usually takes a day to get reliable information.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1795944735065972907?t=ZBEEATeBb09rgiNO4-_fSQ&s=19
How are the f16s going to be utilized once Ukraine gets them? We going to be seeing any new dramatically different types of strikes or mostly going to provide ability to sustain current sort of air operations?
The most likely use is to bolster their air defense but the initial numbers are too few to make much difference. That’s especially true if their use is restricted to missions inside Ukraine or occupied territory. They will be an emotional boost but I’m afraid not much more for now.
Just improving shooting down drones/missiles or would they be able to keep the Russians farther away to impact the glidebombs/etc near the fronts?
I’m just repeating what I read/hear, but both of those things. Anders Puck Nielsen says you can expect some unexplained shootdowns of Russian planes as a first sign of F-16s but that might assume particular weapons are included and that their use isn’t constrained. Also the first batch is only a handful of planes (6?) and you can only keep a fraction of what you have flying at any given time (so, like 3?). Anyway I don’t expect a dramatic initial impact.
Nielsen on long term planning for the Ukrainian AF.
Here he talks more about what F-16s could do for Ukraine.
These videos are a little old now but still relevant.
It all depends on what weapons will be available for those F16s and the amounts of those weapons but having them for defence is more important than risking them on offensive missions. Shooting down incoming drones won’t make the news but civilians will really appreciate it. Same for pushing back enemy planes dropping glider bombs.
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The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, three U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the move said Thursday, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city.
This seems like a weird compromise but what do i know.
Yesterday’s attack in Kerch targeted ferries and smaller boats. At least one ferry seriously damaged. Don’t know for sure what means was used but possibly combination of ATACMS and naval drones.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1796238792136802694?t=GQMtiAr0fUYCg0RXDvFkng&s=19