For some data.
It’s unthinkable? Crimea is never not being Russian again at this point. That’s what’s unthinkable. They’re never giving it back. If acknowledging reality is unthinkable for US diplomacy – and it was for US diplomats, I agree – then that’s what’s gotten us into this mess.
Donbas being autonomous is literally what the treaty that Russia and Ukraine signed in 2014 said.
And of course, I never said that the US gave doing that any thought at all. It was a thought experiment – what if the US gave in to all the Russian demands, and doing so would prevent the war? Of course US diplomats wouldn’t have done so, it was never even considered. Unthinkable, as you say. Would that unthinkable option have prevented this war? Probably.
NATO wasn’t the sole reason why Russia invaded and a more likely culprit was Ukraine getting closer to the EU. The problem with mentioning that is that then you have to say not only should the US ceded some things to Russia but the EU should have as well, which really makes it sound like Russia is treating Ukraine like a colonial subject.
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It’s not a very helpful thought experiment, because it’s the sort of think that could not happen in the world we live in. Would the war in Ukraine have happened the way it did if the US was willing, in exchange for nothing, to talk diplomatic positions that are significantly more pro-Russian than China, Russia’s closest major ally, is willing to take? It’s worth noting here that, unlike China, the US signed a treaty affirming that Crimea and Donbas are part of Ukraine as well.
Probably the war would not happen the way it has in this alternate timeline, but it’s very hard to say what would happen, because clearly international diplomacy is working fundamentally differently than it does in our universe.
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AFAICT full blown invasion has been inevitable since February 2014.
Everything I’ve heard is the core reason is Putin believes in some kind of Russian manifest destiny and a true Russia.
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Would be macho man says Russia must regain its former status instead of admitting it’s scared of NATO enlargement on its border.
We know the latter’s true because of how it annexed the Soviet satellite states to form a buffer between it and an increasingly hostile West.
Some of you should really stop talking about Europe - it’s becoming embarrassing to read. Not you so much, clovis, because at least you’ve admitted you’re not an SME.
OK, change the Crimea bit to mirror China’s position on Crimea: pretend not to approve but do nothing to punish Russia for annexing Crimea. So the US would withdraw sanctions and penalties imposed on Russia because of the Crimea annexation. Equally unthinkable but it should restore the sacred diplomatic norm of pretending to not accept reality to this thought experiment.
It’s the same calvinball realism every time we’ve argued this for the past year.
Ukraine should negotiate and concede territory to Russia because they are the regional power.
NATO as the only moral agent must stand down or else they are responsible for nuclear war.*
So bizzare as to why Ukraine refused this ideology. I think the WWI talk is apt because it’s the kind of theory that seems like it would be useful in 1911 if you’re a country trying to decide which side to be on, but should be obsolete in a global geopolitical world with a noticeable lack of land invasions in the west since 1945.
*Oh by the way part of Mearsh’s theory is that he wants there to be A LOT more nukes in the world. And he’s been dreaming about war in Europe for the past 25 years.
If you say nothing about killing kids despite it being obvious the entire time until it’s convenient for your “murica bad” trolling, you don’t actually care about killing kids… you’re just trolling
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Ukraine should negotiate because the majority in some areas identify as Russian.
You’re conflating “speak Russian” with “identify as Russian, and you’re wrong.
I also look forward to your treatise about how the USA didn’t steal land from Mexico because people identified as american
I wouldn’t ever pretend to be an expert on the history of the US/Mexico 18 months after learning where they were on a map.
Boy are you not going to like where this logic extrapolates to.
Self-determination with land borders I hope.
Land borders are very silly things indeed.
I’m talking about what I think the US should have done. I don’t have an opinion about what Ukraine should have done, up to them. I’d guess they’d have been more likely to negotiate and make concessions if they weren’t backed to the hilt by the US though.
Your talk about Russia and Ukraine suggests otherwise.
Do you support the annexation of the Sudetenland too? I hate to break it to you Jal, but the whole “our countrymen are there” is a very old justification for invasion, used by a lot of shitty actors.
I would be really careful about using the same justifications for expansion or conflict that Hitler, Milosevic and 19th century America used, but that’s just me
The people voraciously building Israeli settlements agree with you.
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