That’s very different from how I remember the start of the war.
What are you talking about? When Ukraine booted Russia from Kherson? It turned out pretty damn good for Ukraine.
How did you remember it?
You grab some popcorn and prepare to lol.
The expectation was that it would be over in a few days and it looked like that was exactly what was happening. Zelensky was supposed to be fleeing in the first hours. The Russians quickly took control of big chunks of territory in the east and south. A tank column was on its way to Kyiv and it didn’t look like a few Javelins were going to stop it. Ukrainian air defense was just trying to survive.
After the first days, there was hope they could hold out for weeks, maybe. It was only after that, as it became clear how incompetent the Russian commanders were and how poorly maintained their equipment was while the Ukrainians were motivated and capable, that people started to think Ukraine could hold their own. It was months after that the tide turned and Russia had to give back their gains in the east.
But I’m sure my memory isn’t perfect.
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Putin expected to have something to say in a few minutes.
It’s been fun knowing you all, if this is the end.
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I guess I don’t know how to embed anymore, it’s a meme
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1672483398622023680
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The embedding is not you, it’s Elon.
All manner of wild rumors are flying. Lukashenko supposedly fleeing (I liked it better when I thought he was dead), stirrings in Chechnya and Georgia. Twitter is collapsing my brain.
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dead in his trespasses
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I could see Putin wriggling of of this, but I would be very worried if I were lukashenko.
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The Russian telegram channel Fighterbomber confirms that Wagner forces were able to down a pair of Mi-8MTPR-1 EW helicopters and one Mi-35 Hind gunship.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672488251288944640?t=uWoE5Y7LXjtsm1jgahSusQ&s=19
Putin address delayed. Now “soon”. I’m going to get some sleep. 
Be interesting to see what Putin does here. Not sure he can risk a major military operation in Rostov without provoking backlash. Maybe a well placed cruise missile or two.
Think the US are already supplying Wagner with intelligence? I’m going to guess yes.
Not exactly a ton of details yet.
Laura Loomer is on board.
ETA: Loomerites above and below the fold!
The CIA right now
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Wagner are apparently also in control of the city of Voronezh. According to the dissident Osechkin, the entire 22nd Special Forces Brigade has defected to Wagner.
Still most likely Wagner just get crushed I think, but things are certainly interesting.
I just figured out why the Wagner grunts are going along with this. They figure that a Leroy Jenkins move on Moscow is less dangerous than going back to Bakhmut.
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