Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

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Afaict the only new detail in that NYT article is that it was the Dutch who told the US Ukraine might be planning an attack. I think at some point the info was supposed to be from Russian sources, though it’s hard to keep this all straight.

One of the previous stories mentioned HMX being found on the Andromeda and at the explosion sites. For anyone following closely, HMX is not a component of C4. Could be used in shaped charges, though less common than RDX.

Yes. Do you not compare and contrast things? Is that really some sort of remarkably strange concept to you?

I would’ve thought you learned what analogies are and aren’t around the time you stopped wanting to throw trans kids in ovens have trans kids get hit by trucks, but eh.

I’ve made it clear I’m not a fan of Stalin. If nothing else, just the airbrushing photos is cringe enough to be a deal-breaker for me. If you’re also not a fan of Stalin then hey, there you go.

Thanks for the honest to god laugh.

Which part was funny?

Was it the dead trans kid? I bet it was the dead trans kid.

I’m laughing at the try-hard troll. You just don’t have it. You’re just boring.

Explaining how analogies work, unto themselves and as part of establishing upper and lower bounds to aid in more effective communication and information exchange, was not a troll. It was the focal point and really should be stickied everywhere.

The part about you feeling bad for the deplorable parents who drive their trans children to suicide was just a fun footnote.

I’m not sure why you wouldn’t just focus on the former if the latter was so boring to you personally.

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if your biggest ally has warned you against something, jeopardizing actual military assistance, just because you want to hurt russia, isn’t super logical. it doesn’t get rid of any russian soldiers in ukraine. yeah, budanov might have this plan on his back wall for some psy op effect, but it’s not a realistic goal.

it’s also been pointed out multiple times that NS2 was not anywhere close to bringing any gas, NS1 had not pump any gas for months at that time. chances were at least 50-50 EU was going to stop buying gas through it anyway. it’s an escalation without any useful effects, and plenty of risks. it also hasn’t been shown that ukraine had necessary personnel and equipment to do it. blowing up the pipeline requires specific set of skills.

Mystery solved

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I guess that’s why the US had to do it.

Russia’s military has gotten better

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I imagine Ukraine correctly evaluated that US support did not depend on thinking they’re swell guys who always do what they’re told. US support for the mujahedeen in Afgahnistan certainly didn’t. Alliances depend on common goals and common enemies, not on being BFFs.

I actually kind of agree that the attacks didn’t really advance Ukraine’s national interest, but the case for the national interest of any other proposed culprit is far more dubious.

What’s going to happen in the next few months

I don’t think blowing up the pipeline was in the US national interest, but then again I don’t think the proxy war is either. But it seems like from the perspective of the neocons in charge in the Biden administration, it’s in their perceived interest. Like was Vicky Nuland lying when she told Ted Cruz how pleased she was that the Russians blew up their own pipeline? Was Sullivan lying when he talked about what a tremendous opportunity the pipeline bombing was for American business?

Those people are Konpermat

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the common goal there is to drive russian forces out of ukraine. the soviet afghanistan war did not involve even half of the support that ukraine is getting, and that administration was not above secretly selling weapons without telling congress. beyond superficial comparisons, it’s a very different story from the height of the cold war.

i don’t see how it is logical that ukraine’s motivation is to both risk everything and also not advance its national interests. individuals can do desperate acts out of motives for revenge, but i don’t think ukraine’s military command has shown irrationality on that level.

russia itself has the underwater operation capability and the plan to frighten ukraine’s eu allies with high cost of gas.

is that a hard-on you have for the under secretary of state, or are you just happy to be talking about hirsch again? seriously it’s weird. you bring her up more often than oleg deripaska. maybe more often than ted cruz

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big news today kadyrov’s right hand man was injured and/or missing in a himars strike. some sources reported he was giving a motivational speech to soldiers before a russian counterattack.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1668904186832990208

better link

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1668922195777581057?cxt=HHwWgsCz0aH5makuAAAA

never forget