weird that they don’t use proximity fuses for that, wonder why
Pretty high on the list of fires I would not want to be a part of, yikes
this fire happened at night, so it’s not even the worst one in terms of casualties.
Because if it detonates near the target, the area covered by the submunitions is reduced, reducing the chance of a hit
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I guess the world has decided that Russia won’t launch a nuke at all. Shit, I hope they’re right.
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The US had never had a problem with Ukraine striking Russia, just using US weapons to do it.
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1601697039452364800?s=20&t=FHfplMk2LhzWe1UjW22DJg
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1601682486861660161?s=20&t=FHfplMk2LhzWe1UjW22DJg
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1601712339199602689?s=20&t=FHfplMk2LhzWe1UjW22DJg
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1601706331895136256?s=20&t=FHfplMk2LhzWe1UjW22DJg
Ukraine won’t be able to claim that much more land than this. They don’t have enough tanks / Planes / artillery to make a frontal advance anywhere, and Russians are no longer spread thin after doing 3 major retreats: Kiev / Kharkiv / Kherson.
Russians have essentially built a line from upper Donbas all the way to south of the Dnipro river which Ukrainians cannot pass an army through.
Anyone disagree?
Not in the short term. In the long term yes.
They won’t be able to take back the areas previously held by the separatists or Crimea anytime soon. It is now a war of economies between what Russia can produce and purchase and what the West is willing to produce and provide to Ukraine. Iran getting in on the Russia side is a big problem as they have many weapons to sell to Russia or trade in exchange for nuclear technology. Trump stopping the deal with Iran removed any leverage the West might have had to stop Iran from taking Russia’s side.
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Define short term.
Short of that, they have a shot to take back a good portion of the remaining Ukrainian territory Russia currently holds by Spring.
It is now a war of economies between what Russia can produce and purchase and what the West is willing to produce and provide to Ukraine.
It’s a grim prospect but that’s where this was headed from the beginning.
4 months.
Think Ukraine is highly likely to take a small piece of territory in that timeframe. Russia is too disorganized for an offensive and their supply lines are shit. Winter will likely slow things down but I don’t see why Ukraine won’t continue to make some gains here and there.
Kind of a rewrite of history here. Ukraine damn near fell in the first week or so
That was expected at the time. The path to something like this situation would have been a lot different, with maybe a long insurgency first, but Russia was always going to end up leaving while trying to hang on to ever-shrinking pieces of territory.
Maybe they can establish an equilibrium where they keep the Donbas pre-invasion areas but it’s hard to see how they counter the Ukrainian’s strategy in Crimea if the West continues to supply them. If the support does fall off, then maybe they can hang on indefinitely there too but I think Ukraine can make a lot of progress through the Winter and Spring before that happens.
This is just my assessment ofc and I’ve been wrong a lot when I tried to guess details of how things would unfold but the broad outline still looks the same as it did last February.