Yeah, I think on top of this, there’s also the demoralization of Russian troops over the winter. I think we are more likely than not to see a Ukrainian offensive this winter that captures another chunk of territory, something on the order of the Kherson offensive or the “east of Kharkiv” offensive that took Izyum et al. before it. I don’t think they seize all of Crimea in that time, and I’m not sure if they aim for something in the east, in the south, or in between, but I think they take something meaningful. Russia hasn’t shown much capability to either take or hold territory since seizing Mariupol, while the Ukrainians have been adept at setting up the battlefield for a swift victory once they choose to strike (albeit after months where it looks like they’re just dinking around to the casual observer following maps).
The interviewee’s twitter has been linked here a few times I believe. Half listened to this walking the dog but I was not paying much attention. Nothing really game changing stood out though for one side or the other.
“There’s nothing to eat. We eat dogs. Today we ate a Yorkshire Terrier,” wrote a Russian soldier from the occupied #Kherson province, #Ukraine to his friend in Russia.
I think the Saudis are actually in favor of these dealings hoping it will lead to armed conflict between the US/Israel and Iran when they try to stop Iran from actually acquiring nukes.
The battlefield map is vastly different since the taking of Mariupol.
Russians can defend their straight line a lot easier than their positioning a few months ago. I don’t see Ukranians advancing anywhere east or south of zaporizhzhia. Russia has massed their army south and east of Bakhmut.
So maybe only further East of Kharkiv? But that’s getting close to the Russian border and not much to gain their tactically. Probably won’t be able to hold.
You might be overestimating the ability of the Russians to do basic military things like supply their troops. Also, aren’t they really low on numbers now that over 1/3rd of their military have died / been injured / captured.
I mean maybe? However there’s lots of smoke about the Russians not having things like water on the front. That usually doesn’t go too well
Usually when you see a commander yakking with his troops in the background, he’s trying to act like a badass.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1601988897235668992?t=kH03cryJNkMRlChkkMR4WQ&s=19
That’s better leadership than I’ve seen thus far from Russia. Normally it’s fuck off you pussy, you don’t need a gun, use your worthless body’s blood to melt the ice so our trucks can advance.
Showing that he wants what is best for his soldiers and is trying to make it happen would improve morale, despite it being terrible since Russia has a terrible military.
But I would also be thinking, “this is bullshit, even my commander thinks this is bullshit, I’m gonna GTFO at the first opportunity.”
It stops the I’m going to murder my commander and a bunch of guys in my platoon thing away though.
I know this is a bit off-topic but Zelensky appeared on Letterman’s Netflix show “My Guest Needs No Introduction”.
Zelensky is charismatic as fuck. Really, he is the leader you want to have in a situation like that. I mean I feel like I’d go to war for him.
Also, props to David for going to Kyiv and having the interview in a subway station there. It’s really brave of him to do that and it also shows that Ukraine is not a dying country by any means. It’s a country waiting for its moment to come back and become stronger than ever.
Seems like there is at least some smoke about Melitopol being the next target for Ukraine. It’s be a pretty bold move if they pull that off
Would divide russian forces in half, and basically isolate those to the south right?
Yeah it would reduce Russian supply lines to all of Crimea and what of Kherson Oblast they still hold to one bridge plus boats. But, it would also leave the Ukrainians there with Russians on two sides of them. It could work if the Russians are sufficiently degraded But if things are that dire for the Russians, then is going that way that much better than just continuing up from Kherson? I guess defensive orientation matters a lot, as it isn’t something anyone can just rotate 90 degrees overnight, so maybe it’s easier for the Ukrainians to flank the Russians that way than it is for the Russians to flank the Ukrainians.