Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

20 Days In Mariupol

As the Russian invasion begins, a team of Ukrainian journalists trapped in the besieged city of Mariupol struggle to continue their work documenting the war’s atrocities

Russian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine. During a meeting with the Russian Presidential Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights (HRC), Putin remarked that the “special operation” in Ukraine can be a “lengthy process” and that the acquisition of new territory is a significant result of this process for Russia.[1] Putin compared himself favorably with Russian Tsar Peter the Great by noting that Russia now controls the Sea of Azov, which Peter the Great also fought for.[2] This invocation of Russian imperial history explicitly frames Putin’s current goals in Ukraine as overtly imperialistic and still maximalist. Putin is conditioning Russian domestic audiences to expect a protracted, grinding war in Ukraine that continues to seek the conquest of additional Ukrainian territory.

The Russian information space responded positively to Putin’s assertions and set further conditions for the protraction of the war, with one milblogger comparing Ukraine to Syria and noting that Russian forces did not start meaningfully experiencing victories on the battlefield until years into the operation.[3] ISW has previously observed that the Kremlin has been setting information conditions for the protraction of the war in Ukraine since the summer following Russian forces’ dismal failures to secure and retain their primary objectives.[4] This informational conditioning is fundamentally incompatible with any discussions regarding a ceasefire or negotiations. Putin seems unwilling to risk losing domestic momentum by halting his offensive operations even briefly, let alone to pursue an off-ramp short of his full objectives, which, as he is making increasingly clear, appear to include the reconstitution of the Russian Empire in some form.

(Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 7 | Institute for the Study of War)

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https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1600658643141419008?s=20&t=_dKiGBzYauAXKo-VGGHC5w

Hanlon’s Razor and all but this should move the PredictIt market for “Is Tucker Carlson on Putin’s payroll?”

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https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1600840459387129857

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This is great news. She didn’t deserve nine years in a fucking penal colony.

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hope the real carrie mathison was able to turn viktor bout before shipping him back to his masters

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https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1600960391575642115?s=20&t=COjPDCY7Smu7J0GkoCRSEw

It’s probable that very few people in Russian penal colonies deserve their sentence but I don’t think it is great thing for the world that a guy like Bout was given freedom so a basketball player could get her life back.

Agree, I think that Russia has like the second highest per capita incarceration rate in the world. Even worse, their ethnic minorities are much more likely to be imprisoned. It’s a disgrace.

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It’s actually an interesting hypothetical. Let’s say we could identify someone wrongly convicted in the US but still locked up and unlikely to be pardoned or get a new trial. Would it be worth it if we could free this person but also had to permanently free a mass murderer who we are sure is guilty?

At least we would know about the murderer and police could keep an eye on him, but I think most people would selfishly say, “sorry the system failed but keep them both in jail, I don’t want that murderer guy running around”

He was going to get out anyway in 7 more years I believe?

I don’t really see how a guy like this is really all that useful to Putin except maybe symbolically. I assume somebody else took his spot when he was got and the new guy isn’t going to be all that eager to give it back. Unless the new guy was like his son or something.

some military analysts have opined that he might still have access to networks for procurement of weapons and maybe personnel from some organized crime units. that’s not nothing but he’s not likely going to be buying missiles to use in donbass, so limited value is probably correct

I guess he gets protection by virtue of being Putin’s boy but the competition can’t be too friendly in that industry. Maybe he should just start a podcast or whatever.

this seems way nicer than what I had been expecting from the various descriptions I had read of russian penal colonies

Maybe it’s just a Potemkin prison labor camp but you probably don’t want your high value hostage to die of exposure.

bruv

ˋHell. Just hell’: Ukraine and Russia’s war of attrition over Bakhmut

Nothing groundbreaking. Russia/Wagner fighting for a symbolic victory. Heavy fighting, heavy losses. WW1 style charges. Artillery turning the town into rubble. Could go on for months though Russia makes some progress here and there.

https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1601102845205712896?s=21

https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1601103871686103040?s=21

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1601205727590510593?s=20&t=_2RZ_otooN4afTxvhiK-_g

ukraine to reportedly soon receive these new anti-air measures