Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

Whew?

Tellusmore.jaypeg

image

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longitude/latitude of town where it landed:

50.4701° N, 23.9341° E

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cit has assembled a lot of separate statements that all point to the rocket being an s-300 and likely fired by ukraine to intercept during the russian missile strike.

apparently there are recorded cases from other conflicts where s-300 didn’t liquidate after it missed and instead blew up on ground impact. so i was wrong yesterday, i thought the odds of that sort of failure and falling essentially on top of people in a rural area would be way too long. but alas. no official reports yet, but i would look at whether it was one or two rockets, one being a bit more likely somehow

most launch systems have checks against this type of faulty input, seeing how the mistaken coordinates can end up in a different country

It might be worth considering that the Twitter accounts you follow and the news sources you frequent have a bias that may influence their reporting or theorizing in a situation like this, which in turn influences your own thought process.

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of course i follow biased accounts. do you know any accounts that aren’t biased pro ua or pro ru? twitter accounts i follow also admit where their thinking or statements were wrong. i bring to this thread crosschecks from the pro-kremlin accounts as wel

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1592845085011738629

https://mobile.twitter.com/AVindman/status/1592638650541834240

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But that’s the issue, right? People seem to have segmented things such that anything that isn’t pro-Ukrainian is de facto pro-Russian, so what would be acceptable as an in-between source anyways?

And no, I don’t have any because I don’t Twitter, so I can’t help you there, but I’m sure they’re out there somewhere.

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I can only imagine the shitstorm that would have followed if keed had been here and had said “maybe it was a Ukrainian air defense missile that missed its target”

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this is a stupid take. analysts i follow are constantly re-evaluating which sources are telling or omitting accyrate information and what their motives might be and whether we find out later what the truth was, and what sort of credibility that builds. the conflict itself is VERY cut and dry. yes, even finding offramps for russia is essentially team phtin.

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I don’t think so, you were the only one I recall. And keed bringing it up is critical to my hypothetical, as he was the primary target for being “pro-Russia”

I mean, you posted earlier that you thought it might not be Russian and no one gave you a hard time about it.

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You’re right, it was just ignored. If keed had posted it?

For about a day the pro-Ukraine side was thinking it was probably a Russian missile, then they realized they were wrong and issued very public mea culpas.

Now imagine the pro-Russia side doing anything of the sort.

The two sides are not the same by a long shot. One actually gives a shit about the truth.

And no I don’t mean some random on twitter. I mean serious people like Mark Hertling. There are no serious people on the pro-Russia side because there is no legitimate pro-Russia case for invasion. It’s a pure naked aggression land grab.

So they’ve all just spewed a firehose of disinformation from the beginning when they told us Russia was never going to invade and the Ukraine govt was full of nazis. And then “well ackshually Bucha wasn’t that bad…” and “why won’t the war-mongers in Washington give peace a chance” and on and on and on.

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There’s no limit to your imagination

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Bro jman literally posted a picture of Mearsheimer in response to keed pointing out that Articles 4 and 5 are short and readable. If you think he wouldn’t have been trolled for speculating that it could have been from a Ukrainian source then you’re just oblivious

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I mean, he’d be trolled for being obnoxious, wrong about all the major things he argued, and refusing to ever admit he was wrong.

Not for saying this could have been from Ukraine though.