Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

so i zoomed in a bit further. Dobrotvirska TPP is not in the same place as Dobrotvir, at least according to Grid Map. But even more confusing, google satellite pics don’t show anything looking like a power plant where it says Dobrotvirska TPP is. it’s fields north of Murovanne. even more mysterious, i cannot find any high power lines crossing between ukraine and poland around there. these details could be smaller than i think they are, but i think this is a case of several pieces of information that don’t corroborate with each other. at least not yet.

fwiw, 100km is a BS distance. the alleged strike shown in the NYtimes report is maybe 6km past the border, and 65km from L’viv, which russia hit on the same night.

Why do you assume that Belarus being uncovered as the bad actor would cause Putin to back away?

According to Wikipedia the plant is at 50.213273°N 24.374971°E which puts it here, in Dobrotvir. You can see the power station photo comes up on Google Maps there. So I think the grid map is just inaccurate.

here’s the shot from the entsoe.

which puts it about 30 km further NW

Right but entsoe is wrong. Go to the Google Maps link I posted, switch to satellite. The plant is right there.

right, i also think entsoe is wrong, which makes me think the powerline is possibly not going through Przewodow, like entsoe tries to draw for us.

Maybe the guys putting the target info into the guidance systems didn’t use google maps.

Because a direct conflict with NATO has a high likelihood of ending Putin’s regime

FYP

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This is true, but I wonder how much of a stick Russia has to swing. Dead soldiers who were previously in their nuclear missile programs have been in ukraine.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3737444-biden-unlikely-missile-that-hit-poland-was-fired-from-russia-pending-investigation/

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Those sanctions are a real pain in the ass.

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So, Belarus?

The guys on VoS’s Twitter list think it was an errant Ukrainian SAM.

It seems likely that Poland would have known that almost immediately, but maybe.

Poland was careful to say it was “Russian built”, which the S-300 is.

Kh-101 (if claim holds up) is air-launched. Belarus could have hosted the bomber.

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re: human error, these coordinates are doing the rounds on twitter:

Kyiv/Coordinates 50.4501° N, 30.5234°E

Lviv/Coordinates 49.842957 ° N, 24.031111° E

target 50.4501° N 24.031111° E

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That would make a stupid amount of sense.

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https://twitter.com/javierespinosa2/status/1592818935359221760

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