fwiw the still of an s300 fragment that russian channels are distributing does not appear to be from this incident.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Aontaithe2021/status/1592641908916256768
Cliffs on difference between Article 4 and Article 5?
Two missiles “missing” in the same spot is a pretty good point by that person who commented. That seems… unlikely? Unless it has to do with some sort of central targeting system malfunctioning. @skydiver8 do you have any expertise on this?
Article 4 = Yo we need to talk about this NOW.
Article 5 = Time to go to war.
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It’s not too farfetched. The person responsible for programming the targeting may have made a mistake of some sort. It’s not unlikely that that person could make the same mistake on a second missile. I have no idea how these things work, but I doubt they are point and click. Def room for human error/incompetence.
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Nope, no clue. An experienced artillery officer would know…definitely not my area, heh.
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urgent call to come and investigate an incident vs. urgent call to bring military help for defense.
Yeah human error seems much more plausible than random error.
Hertling says wait for facts but also
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1592665844638969856?s=20&t=m1iaFAs7OnwELuZsaGZVMg
some RU details came out, they claim the hit occurred over 100 km past the closest target they fired upon on the latest strike. that’s quite a human error, even if someone punched in the wrong GPS coordinates, the odds of a stray missile hitting something vs falling in a field or forest would be like running into multiple one-outers in a row. here, the reports are saying two missiles falling in roughly the same place. that points to an error that affected both trajectories, which i would guess rules out a GNC malfunction, but could indicate a GPS malfunction or tampering.
btw, russia and poland have quite a history of accidents. anyone remember polish president in a plane crash while trying to land in russia? yeah, another one in a million failures.
that map doesn’t appear to be where Przewodow is in poland.
eh, i stand corrected, it might be. the zoom is completely misleading, and teh borders are too straight.
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Would be a darkly funny big brain move if this is actually Belarus shooting the rocket into Poland intentionally to get themselves into a conflict with NATO so Putin has to abandon them as partners and their troops don’t have to go get slaughtered in Ukraine.
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lukashescu isn’t playing 4d chess
Map is accurate. From a power grid map of Europe:
And a grab from Google maps showing Dobrotvirska and Przewodów. You can compare the shapes of the borders on each map.
IDK why the power grid shows it so much closer to the border though.
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So the theory is Russia was trying to cut Ukraine off from getting power from the rest of Europe and this was a tactical and intentional strike?
It’s a possibility but I have no clue if this power line actually matters and it doesn’t seem like the missiles actually hit it, at least from what we’ve heard so far.
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I think he’s just reassuring the populace that no further missiles are inbound right now, wouldn’t read more into it than that.
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I think if this is a deliberate strike from Russia, the point would more be testing what NATO’s response will be than anything else. It does seem suspicious to me that two missiles ended up at the same location in Poland. Like imagine if I was trying to low key communicate to an enemy “this was not an accident, we did this shit on purpose”, having two missiles hit one location is a pretty good way to do that. Still unclear what is going on and a lot of possibilities are in play but don’t much like the vibes I’m getting from this.
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