Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

Given the performance of russian bombing campaigns, I think the issue is actually they don’t have much in the way of precision strike capabilities. They also don’t have enough cruise missiles to just level everything. They could theoretically simply dominate the air and pull a massive dumb bombing campaign, but their air force has been shown to be a paper tiger.

Russia hasn’t successfully attacked infrastructure because it hasn’t shown that it’s capable of doing so. The towns they’ve occupied they’ve simply destroyed. They haven’t saved anything.

Forbes does estimates for these attacks. I think they guessed 700 million for the latest attack.

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Good analysis of what Belarus might be doing

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1579561278234046465?s=21

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I wonder if EU and US aid also stretched to civilian infrastructure stuff. Would be a lot easier to restore power if they have easy and quick access to parts.

A cruise missile costs about 1 million USD, probably a little more in Russia due to corruption. Less than 200 million for those 80 probably. Doubt they have much more though.

edit: Forbes probably knows more than me though.

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I don’t know this source, and I don’t think I agree with its conclusions, but I post it for the pic of the bridge damage, which I think is authentic. With the charring of the lane that survived and the train positioned as it is, it seems very unlikely that the explosion came from below the bridge, ya?

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1579835433873465345?s=20&t=2b_iaMVS08WAMMbzXmC1uQ

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Elon Musk spoke directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin before tweeting a proposal to end the war in Ukraine that would have seen territory permanently ceded to Russia, it has been claimed.

In a mailout sent to Eurasia Group subscribers, Ian Bremmer wrote that Tesla CEO Musk told him that Putin was “prepared to negotiate,” but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognized Russia’s annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

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Can’t confirm the subtitles but this would appear to be a genuine introduction to a Russian news and discussion program (complete with female scream). Not entirely focused on the military value of the missile strikes. The cruelty would appear to be the point:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1579867583494656001

Link to full show: Место встречи / Выпуски программы / День настал?!

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Someone tell Ukraine that Elon Musk is a legitimate target now.

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There are many reasons, but that’s always been the case.

So now the Russians are attacking their own infrastructure.

Bringing the real content

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Why wait for nukes? Let’s get it on

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Not as sexy.

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https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1579809352130891776?s=20&t=oau3fKXFJT9gdXyLuWJBKw

This will affect a lot more than teachers. Amazing how Putin always manages to adopt short term “solutions” that aggravate underlying problems. Another example would be killing international investment in Russia by shaking down (or permitting the shakedown) of investors. Works great for a few years, until there are no more investors. Too much of that sort of bold management and you end up squandering your reign by getting your ass kicked by a “weak” neighbor while also being internationally vilified.

My apologies for interrupting whatever the fuck is going on ITT with a bit of actual news about the war in Ukraine.

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https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1579849092070789120?s=20&t=1GjXKkrbrnSxMBGvJdOF8w

I’ve been trying to keep up with the war, but I lost my best source. Does anyone have a good link to a Twitter list or perhaps a forum where well-informed people are keeping tabs on the latest developments and sharing news?

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