Ya, at this point it is fruitless to talk about whether there will be a nuclear attack when we can just try to read what ole’ Mearhseimer said, then prepare for the opposite.
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To influence public opinion in the rest of the world. It costs Putin next to nothing to allow Ukrainian grain to be shipped to Africa or Asia. He definitely does not want to strengthen the resolve to defeat Russia or create anti-Russian sentiment in neutral/friendly countries. Some of those exports have gone to Iran, India and China for example.
cruise missiles aren’t cheap, cost around $1 million usd each to manufacture and given Russian corruption that price could be tenfold.
I feel like many posters here are making too big a deal about the whole tactical nuke vs strategic nuke distinction. They way this will play for the rest of the world is that Putin fired a nuclear weapon. I just don’t think there is going to be a whole lot of “Wait, it was only a tactical nuke? That’s not as bad.”
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It is kind of an interesting question what NATO’s response to that is. I’d imagine nothing? You can’t escalate it, and they’re clearly not going to put an embargo on russian oil etc., as has been demonstrated already.
Not sure how you don’t respond tbh. Cant let someone threaten nukes to take over parts of europe
yea, this is true, which is why I think it’s an interesting question - what do they do? strike back? where? what happens after that is almost certainly global nuclear war.
I don’t think you have to strike back at nuclear facilities or with a nuke. You could setup a no fly zone for example, take out the Russian navy locally, etc
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i think @boredsocial is probably right that their infra is likely such a mess, if the rest of their military is any indication, that even if he gave the order to fire, nothing probably happens
Is that really a bet you want to make?
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Seems like running a few hundred sorties a day in Ukraine with NATO warplanes would be an appropriate response.
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Odd question but why close own the order after the mobilization? I get the morality of closing it to rich Russian vacationers who are sipping martinis and never have to fight, but why close it to people who are running from conscription?
they are closing the borders for most easy-to-get visas. afaict, humanitarian visas and a few more are still ok.
on the one hand, people fleeing mobilization should get all the benefit of the doubt. on the other hand, it’s been demonstrated over and over that russians supprting the war go abroad and behave like assholes when they come in contact with ukrainians. lots of incidents of assault and harassment. those who didn’t support the war had almost 7 months to leave. what the hell were they waiting for? back in the spring it was clear that if putin were losing, mobilization was likely if not a virtual lock and a shadow mobilization in progress. and if putin was winning, staying in the country didn’t just make you complicit, almost all of the domestic taxpayer money was going towards pillaging and then “rebuilding” donbass.
The border is closed for those with tourist visas. They can still apply for asylum.
“If you don’t like it, leave”
Oh OK. That seems fine