it’s one of those things people think when they’ve watched too many movies, if you put a bullet in your commanding officer you better have a hell of an escape plan, cause both sides in a war are trying to kill you now
he wanted the USSR back
and like the breakup of the USSR, russia is going backwards
Lol, that makes a lot more sense.
I still think the original plan had two main objectives:
- Take Donbas and take a land bridge to Crimea
- Kill/exile Zelensky and install a puppet government
They could then pull back and “leave Ukraine” to the new Ukrainian goverment, which would be subserviant to Putin.
I’m not sure whether or not that would have led to a long, bloody insurgency. Even if it did, it wouldn’t be entirely his problem.
Worse than I expected. I assumed they just falsify the final numbers.
Why it‘s important:
https://twitter.com/tassagency_en/status/1573286121693487105?s=21
Can’t imagine why that’s not another empty threat. Even if it’s a true threat, not sure how you could let it stand because of it.
Yeah nobody is falling for this and Putin’s position has gotten weaker over the last couple of weeks not stronger.
Look if he wants to push the big red button he can try. I think the odds of a nuclear war happening if he did push the big red button are <10%. That button leads to somewhere, and that somewhere leads somewhere else… and that somewhere else has been getting maintained to the same standard as the rest of the Russian military. Between people deliberately ‘misunderstanding’ the order, maintenance failures, and internal power politics being almost impossible to discern right now…
Yeah I don’t buy the nuclear threats. I think the mobilization is going to fail now too. Nothing has gone right for Putin since he started this war.
The threat is using tactical nukes, not all-out nuclear war.
I gotta wonder if mobilization is just a clever way of ethnically cleansing Russia.
Using tactical nukes is straight up suicide for Putin. Seriously he’s already either pushing or seeing friends pushed out of windows at record rates. Combine that with the fact that all of NATO’s air power probably gets into the war an hour after that bomb goes off and even if he somehow survives his countries internal politics through the initial days his military will get absolutely eradicated in the days that follow.
I don’t think there’s a realistic chance Putin would push the big red button, because he would die promptly after doing that. If anything, he would push a small red button to use a tactical nuke in Ukraine. That’s not going to trigger a nuclear war. I doubt it would even trigger a full conventional war between Russia and NATO. And critically, using nukes isn’t going to win the war! There are no massed ground formations that can be wiped out with a nuke. Maybe you could wipe out like a tank company with one nuke, but that’s not going to shift the course of the war. More likely you would target logistics hubs, but then you’re probably killing LOTS of civilians for marginal improvements over what you could do with cruise missiles. And any nuclear use will (hopefully?) completely destroy Russia’s diplomatic position.
A nuclear threat wouldn’t be credible from a rational adversary. The big risk is that Putin is so trapped in his own bubble that he can’t assess the situation correctly (which is how we got here). But the key thing is that we don’t need to make lots of big threats to deter Putin from using nukes, because the action is self-defeating.
Even if this is all true, there’s nothing in Russia’s internal politics that could possibly be as threatening to his personal position as having an ICBM targeted at his specific location. That’s certainly part of NATO’s nuclear war plan.
Yeah I think there’s close to zero chance that there’s any actual use of nuclear weapons here. Threatening to use nuclear weapons is a very effective move though so I expect them to do it three or four times a day from now on.
But I thought the invasion was a bluff and he wouldn’t do it. I also thought Trump wouldn’t be nominated or elected. In all three cases I thought nobody would actually put their own dick in a garbage disposal and flip the switch. Turns out people in both small and large groups are complete fucking morons.
And I thought that it would be dick in garbage disposal stupid AND that they would win the war almost immediately lol. This is sooooooo much worse.
But Putin’s line through now has proven beyond the shadow of a doubt that he’s not making good decisions… so maybe he just tries to smash his head through the brick wall again.
Yeah there won’t be any large scale mutiny or anything, but a lot of these new soldiers are gonna be super poor dudes with very little to lose. I could see a handful of Private Pyle type situations cropping up.
Anyone know why they didn’t take the 3rd guy too?
Hey Mearsheimer,
Russia is holding “referendums” to annex Ukrainian land. What the fuck did this quack head say about Russia is not looking to conquer land?
It was all about NATO?
What a total lame duck. Every single point made has been proven to be false.
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Its a threat but I don’t see him even going there.
He can still target nuclear power plants or other power plants before a tactical strike which he hasn’t. He hasn’t actively tried to destroy Ukraine’s energy grid.
Why did he ‘allow’ a grain deal to happen to ship grain out if he was close to using nuclear weapons.
He sent 1 missile to Odessa port.
He isn’t escalating nuclear wise. He is escalating via a half assed mobilization.
His situation reminds me so much of the plot of The Downfall.
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That’s a ton of people going to Antalya, Turkey it looks like.
Tbilisi, Georgia was already experiencing up to 50% increase in rents compared to just before the war. Locals are gonna be even more furious, there’s already a lot of Fuck Russia/Putin grafitti.