Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

Finland also allows entering for family, work or study reasons.

I’d agree if it’s “real” asylum. If it’s just running away because they don’t want to get drafted but they still support Putin, then they can go fuck themselves.

I’m imagining if the US told the Venezuelan refugees in Martha’s Vinyard that they need to fuck off and go back home and kill Marduro instead of coming here.

The ABC here spoke to one of the guys fleeing across the Estonian border. He was willing to speak and be photographed because he is a Navalny partisan and accepts he is not going back to Russia anytime soon.

https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1573272879655010306

Anyone able to give us the chiefsplanet take on the mobilization? @Trolly? @suzzer99?

I guess I could go over there, but hopefully one of our monitors is already up to speed.

much better videos are several where mobilized troops are in a blind drunken stupor.

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I have been assured that Russia is not planning on invading Ukraine.

No, NATO responds to a nuke. At a minimum I’d say its bombing and droning the hell out of Russian positions in Ukraine. Where it goes from there? Who the fuck knows. It’s not a good scenario.

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I think it would be a specific one time, contained thing.

You did this. We did that. Tit for tat. And the same again if russia responds.

Nothing sustained. They need to leave a path open to back down.

haha nice juxtaposition of the russian-georgian border only 14 years apart

image

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I haven’t peeked in the DC forum in years.

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https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1573671534421590017

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nbd, it’s just tony b. just casually hanging out with pussy riot.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CivckNxOnAK/

military analysts are starting to describe putins predicament as a zugzwang. and doing a full mobilization while calling it partial was the least painful or the most long-term option. even a tactical nuke wouldn’t catch nato or ukraine off guard, and the response would be to aggressively go against targets inside. eg a bunker buster aimed at putins palace on the black sea

Maybe this is conspiracy theoryish but I still think it’s possible this is just a scheme to get lots of undesired ethnic minorities removed courtesy of the Ukrainian military.

I am not sure one could discern a meaningful difference between your theory and the plain one, that this is an overly hasty mobilization that is more extensive than what Putin implied in his speech and that also largely ignores Moscow and St. Petersburg because including them would be too politically untenable.

That doesn’t seem likely to me, but game it out for me. If that’s the case, what’s the exit strategy/off ramp?

You think NATO would attack inside Russian borders if they use a tac nuke? Honestly not sure.