Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

Don’t look for a complicated answer when a simple one already exists, Republicans categorically refuse to accept the successes of their opposition. The Democrats pushed through a watereddown version of a Republican heathcare reform and they said it was too liberal.

Also that Russian media clip is amazing, I think the kids call this Copium, lots and lots of it.

https://twitter.com/chuckpfarrer/status/1569360201333239808?s=46&t=jMnZGjEULp7F9ND9WS2y9g

Yeah, Ukraine has already hit ammo depots inside Russia, even before they had HIMARS, IIRC. Clearly those sorts of strikes are fair game. I doubt they drive tanks over the border. Special forces doing covert strikes at juicy targets is probably it.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1569640660021694465?s=46&t=p5jGY_G_vPKPuhKSrWcsAA

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A lot of people are going to be falling out of windows over the next few days.

a couple of reports this morning that ru units surrendered at Snigirovka, which opens the road to kherson.

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an even more bold claim, ru units in izyum negotiated a retreat, leaving in place an almost full arsenal for a few BTGs.

also, ru reinforcements were in fact on the way to kharkiv region, including ones from the new 3rd corp. and afu quickly himars’ed them before they even saw any battles.

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Poor bastards. From what I’ve read the new guys coming in are close to the bottom of the barrel.

now russian channels are freaking out about an alleged amassing of AFU armored troops in zaporozh’e direction

man this is just getting more and more exciting

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:vince: :queen_amused: jlawok.gif. commodus.gif

List of Russian municipal deputies calling for Putin’s resignation grows to nearly 50, local official says

From CNN’s Uliana Pavlova

Nearly 50 municipal deputies have now signed a petition demanding the resignation of President Vladimir Putin, 29 more than on Monday, according to one of those involved.

Ksenia Thorstrom, a municipal deputy of the Semenovsky District in Saint Petersburg, told CNN:

“Now we have 47 verified signatures. Their geography has expanded significantly.”

“My colleagues and I wanted to support the deputies from Smolninsky, who were recently summoned to the police and will soon have a trial,” Thorstrom said.

The petition says: “We, the municipal deputies of Russia, believe that the actions of its president Vladimir Putin are detrimental to Russia’s and its citizens’ future. We demand Vladimir Putin’s resignation from the post of the President of the Russian Federation."

“We decided to make our appeal so short that there would be less reason to find any fault with it from the authorities and so that as many municipal deputies as possible would sign the petition,” Thorstrom said.

Last week, the deputies of the Smolninskoye municipality of St. Petersburg called on the State Duma of the Russian Federation to bring charges of treason against Putin in order to remove him from office due to the war in Ukraine. Now those deputies face charges of “discrediting” the Russian army, according to a tweet by one of them, Nikita Yuferev.

Municipal deputies are local officials with limited political influence. The petition follows Russia’s first regional and municipal elections since the start of the war, in which pro-Kremlin candidates were overwhelmingly successful.

Has anyone seen any reliable information about Ukrainian losses from the offensives? I’ve seen russian-bots/sources claiming they are massive - which is obviously a very biased source, but haven’t seen anything from reliable sources if this has been a cake-walk or they are taking some decent losses.

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image

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Haven’t seen anything, but they wouldn’t be able to advance if they were taking huge damages.

There is no reliable information accessible to nonmilitary sources on this.

Having said that, it’s very clear that UA forces suffered almost no losses from the final week of the Battle of Kharkiv - the Russian forces west of the Oskir immediately surrendered or fled and left behind substantial equipment, the Ukrainian units there are arguably in better shape then before the offensive, though they will be taking time now to rearm, position again, and recondition the armored vehicles they captured which are sure to be in a very poor state.

The offensive near Lyman on the south end of the east front seems to be an even match, UA forces are pressuring the town from at least two sides but all reports are the Russians are holding and Ukraine is certainly taking heavy losses from storming this well fortified position. I don’t expect Russia to draw a line here and I predict an eventual withdrawal to the area near Severodonesk. Recent indications are that the P66 highway leading to Severodonesk may already be under pressure by nearby UA advances.

In the south, the general lack of public good news is probably bad news for Ukraine. They managed expectations well by indicating this would be a battle of attrition that would play out over months, but still I believe they are underperforming their goals. This area was recently reinforced by the best defensive troops available because RU believed this was the main thrust to counter. I have seen some reports from troops there which support the idea that Ukraine has taken heavy losses for every inch of ground they advance - nevertheless, they have been advancing. The main UA advantage here is that it’s probably logistically unfeasible in the long term to keep the number of troops near Kherson supplied across the Dnipro over temporary pontoon bridges - and equally untenable for Russia to withdraw those same forces. In the medium term I would predict the Kherson situation to improve but slowly.

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Is a municipal “deputy” just the same as a member of a municipal council, which wiki says is a relatively powerless position?

kherson direction had reporting that indicated hundreds per day dead, some of which appeared in Wapo. i think it’s likely in the 150-500 range, based on what many analysts are saying, although the average numbers are likely across all directions, not kherson specifically.

the kharkiv direction allegedly had few casualties comparative to other offensive, because ru started retreating rather than hold defensive positions.

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it is powerless, it’s like a town council person, except the entire council has even less power.

but it is nonetheless just about the only “class” who are somewhat protected by the law when they are critical of higher ups. a regular person is just arrested if they come out with a protest. a deputy could say shit in front of tv cameras, and likely fight off the initial charges for a few weeks. if it were egregious, they would still be arrested, but it would take court hearings, house arrests, etc.

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I’m naming the counteroffensive in Kharkiv oblast the Battle of Balakliya, after the town the breakthrough occurred.

https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1569803067410812928?s=20&t=xm__4gJOvJL7aBjpoKS5qw

Stop, stop! We’re all reasonable people here. Let’s negotiate something both sides can agree we will immediately violate.

that rumor has all the signs of a psyops from ukraine. even if Ru Mod actually reached out.