a couple of videos are showing explosions either in Tagan-Rog, or Rostov-on-Don. seems they are pointing at missile explosions, rather than an armed assault. could simply be provocation as the casus for general mobilization. although i think it’s suicide. two days into mobilization putin’s apparatchiks are going to start disappearing
Wikipedia page for HIMARS says that were given conditional to not being used on targets inside Russia. I would imagine a lot of the other aid had similar conditions.
I’m familiar with that, but I don’t think that will be enforced perfectly and there’s ways around.
Also, the “not in Russia” stuff was always a fig leaf of avoidance of escalation with Russia. It placated less enthusiastic allies like Germany more than anything else.
Russia can’t really do shit about it now. If they choose to fully mobilize or escalate, it won’t be because HIMARS hit a few targets in Russia. Also, can’t imagine they want any of that NATO smoke given what Ukraine is doing.
the pro war guy looks like a common street thug
I watched this. I think it was posted up thread. He was calling out the “colonial” language specifically, whatever that means.
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Russian soldiers:
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there is plenty of territory to liberate in LDNR, Mariupol, Zaparozh’e. it might be easier to occupy belgorod/rostov territory as a future exchange, but the outcome needs to be a return to 1991 borders, surely with Crimea. otherwise, it is probably worse to move to occupy, rather than defend
My understanding was the colonial war guy is like the Democrat on Fox News shows who the Russian right wingers use to beat up on more liberal positions and non comrade guy is doing normal right wing thugging on the more liberal guy for having temerity for being anything less than perfectly patriotic
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I don’t think they’d occupy. They would strike in Russia. You can’t allow them to regroup and resupply just over the border without harassment. Most I could see is Ukraine pushing the Russian border away from Mariupol along the Sea of Azov. Would be pretty nuts to try to isolate crimea by encircling the azov I’d think.
When the USSR collapsed the majority Armenian enclave Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan voted to join Armenia. Armenia and Azerbaijan have been fighting about it on and off again ever since.
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Long-standing dispute over territory, with recent military conflict starting again in 2021 and into 2022.
in reality the conflict predates USSR collapse
that‘s when they had the referendum IIRC
You think ordinary Russians will be excited to send their kids off to the meat grinder that’s chewing up the professional Russian army? I think Putin could be at risk of a coup if he does that.
Russia would presumably use nukes against Ukraine if there was an invasion their army couldn’t stop. Ukraine moving more than a few miles into Russia is a fantasy.
Ukrainian airstrikes into Russia aren’t a huge political problem either because both sides are content to deny it is happening.
Just imagine Russians using “comrade” in the same way as Australians use “mate” without the term having specific ties to communism.
“Non-comrade” means someone who seems depressed and at risk of committing suicide by jumping out of a high window.
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Not excited but once the war is fought on Russian territory they will be much more amenable to the idea. As long as they believe that the war stops at the border they can continue living their quiet lives. Once Ukrainian forces cross into Russian territory they have to consider how far this conflict will go.
For Ukraine there‘s also the consideration that Putin might use tactical nukes.
The upside of an incursion into Russia do not justify these risks.
I have heard Twitter experts say Ukraine is keeping its forces spread out to defend against a tactical nuke. Not really sure how safe it is for a country to pop a bunch of them off right along the border.
i am not referring to the Nagornyj Karabakh war, but the pogroms that go back to at least ww1 timeframe.