Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

Kofman: The smart Russian move in Kherson would be to retreat across the Dnieper and consolidate their positon there. So they’re not going to do that.

I’d expect the Russians on the wrong side of the river to understand this. Surrendering must be starting to look pretty appealing.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1568315070102265858?s=20&t=1PwTIxMu0Vzcx5Nx5JbBDg

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https://twitter.com/TelegraphWorld/status/1569243867215728640

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this headline is failing us in a few ways. this isn’t debate. it’s straight uncut copium. right now they are trying to convince themselves to love the bomb.

Heard rumours about mass surrender on the Russian side and Ukraine not having infrastructure to hold all the POWs.

there’s a hilarious news interview of a farmer, who says he hauled three t80 tanks as trophies to his farm, and was planning on using parts of them, yet the 93rd brigade came and took them away. then he says, “i am not going to forget them that.”

no ukrainian knowledge necessary. the intonation is universal.

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I recall a spokesman reminding the populace it was illegal in Ukraine for civilians to possess tanks.

I know, right? The bit about blowing up the abandoned tanks was tragic.

according to AFU spox, they are about ready to bisect the kherson region troops into two smaller encirclements.

The only story along these lines I recall was the declaration that income tax isn’t owned on captured Russian armor.

Not that your text is incorrect, but this map appears to be the area right around Zaporizhzhia, not Kherson?

no, it shows area north of dnepr. it’s an unfortunate use of blue for liberated territory. it doesn’t help that ukraine has lots of villages named the same thing.

The fighting looks fierce around Tallahassee.

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OK, there are two Stepnes and Shirokes. That threw me off.

telegrams in last two hours have claimed that

  • ukraine attacked outskirts of TaganRog, russian territory.
  • ukraine has opened a direction from Vuhledar, to encircle Donetsk (via girkin).
  • Azerbaijan attacked Armenia, with Bayraktars no less.

either everything is happening all at once, or it’s a massive disinfo dump by the kremlinbots.

The Azerbaijan thing seems legit, except I heard artillery was used.

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I will alway be very skeptical of claims that Ukrainian forces attacked Russian territory. That is the kind of thing that could convince the Russian public to support a general mobilization.

also tagan rog is not accessible for ukraine. it’s on the Azov coast. that one seems to be fake

Maybe… but I don’t think so.

Problem is that I don’t see how Ukraine gets everything back if they don’t go into Russian territory at all. They have to make the Russians at least worried about it to keep up pressure on their military.

so the reason Azerbaijan matters, is that Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Turkmenistan are in a mutual defense pact, and theoretically they are supposed to be there supporting armenian troops