Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

The French know it at “sickle cut”.

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https://twitter.com/ukrpravda_news/status/1568508905201836034?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1568508905201836034|twgr^697db0f21f04b18406a54bfd2875ba68154ca2ca|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.n-tv.de%2Fpolitik%2F13-19-Ukraine-meldet-Einnahme-von-Kupjansk--article23143824.html

Apparently that is infront of the town hall of Kupiansk. Reports on telegram seem to indicate that Russia left Izium.(everything for german news ticker on the war)

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I’m sure this specific operation had at minimum several weeks of training in preparation for it.

Lot of chatter on Twitter is suggesting exactly this.

yep izyum looks shaky


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they likely were preparing both directions. defenses in the kharkiv direction look weaker than what was expected. kherson region defense was reinforced, so i think ukraine just hasn’t turned it upto 11 there yet.

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honestly goosebumps watching this

https://mobile.twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1568344387137970176

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Advance keeps going east. Crazy shit

At this pace Ukraine will take Moscow by Halloween

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1568597679441076226?s=46&t=TMjxGiFLLa5-fnBNhye3jg

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https://twitter.com/dmitryopines/status/1568346500157276161?s=46&t=Dh5g_0nVwnUHuib60TNsSA

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At the very least, the Ukrainians could have been putting Russia in a no-win situation by threatening Kherson. If Russia moves troops to help those in Kherson, then they’ll be softer up north. If they don’t, I don’t think the Ukrainians would be disappointed to recapture Kherson and potentially take a whole shitload of POWs. It does seem to my inexpert eye that taking Kupyansk was the preferable outcome, though, so it doesn’t seem wrong to describe the move on Kherson as a feint designed to soften up the north. There are a lot of troops that depend on those supply lines. Although it sounds more like those troops saw the writing on the wall and are choosing to GTFO rather than get surrounded and cutoff from supplies.

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https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1568622396898426886?t=5Arp9JSC-5ngHlsd_myLeA&s=19

Izium is crazy.

Reading a history of the US civil war. Whoever is commanding Ukraine military is the anti-McClellend. I’d think they would now need to consolidate their positions in the North while continuing to disrupt Russian supply lines. It’s kind of a new war.

I think this is where no one being willing to tell
Putin the truth screwed Russia. A competent assessment might have led Russia to just pull back Kherson to a more defensible position where the river protected them rather than hurt their ability to resupply.

Not ideal of course but better than the alternative we are seeing now and I’m not sure Kherson is really of any strategic value to Russia unless they really thought they could push out eventually in the South.

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but how does this compare to Afghanistan withdrawal??

so, in your estimation, would putin believe that kherson fell?

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1568605636241555459?s=20&t=iluAvByMMpceiqeR7YsGmg

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1568605648065298433?s=20&t=iluAvByMMpceiqeR7YsGmg

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I’m old enough to remember when Russia was absolutely, positively not going to invade Ukraine.

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The fact they are leaving behind tons of equipment makes that very unlikely.

The Russians have been in Crimea for years. Barring a major collapse of the Russian Army, does Ukraine have any real chance of taking back Crimea in the foreseeable future?

That was before Putin was FORCED to invade Ukraine because people were mean to him.

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