Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

I’m trying to imagine how loud that would be

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you don’t have to imagine. just go to graveley point and wait for a particularly loud one to get an idea.

I’ve had the Blue Angels fly pretty low over my head. Not sure it was quite as low as in the video, but probably not too different, either. It’s really fucking loud, even when they (and I assume the Su pilots in the video also) are subsonic.

map might even be outdated by now. sen’kove also had geotagged photos published

And I suspect that it’s also overstating the Russian presence. There aren’t a ton of roads or other places to be on either side of that P07 highway.

What once was a dick now is a horse

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oh man this is do good. ukrainian keyboard warriors are spamming russian channels’ comments with a picture of raisins cooking in a pot. (Izyum is the word for raisins, a popular dish in some places)

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The other strategic significance of Kupiansk is it’s at the northern end of a reservoir that forms a natural barrier for any retreating Russians. The bridges across the reservoir are blown, but they control one bridge and a short stretch of bridgeable river south of the reservoir.

This is the map we have been staring at for months without much movement in the frontlines. The black and red lines are the Russian lines of communication (*). These are vital. It’s a big deal that Ukraine is finally able to attack them. Something must have changed. Ukraine never tried to attack them before and Russia should be defending them tooth and nail.
Maybe it’s the HIMARS and other artillery. Maybe Russian forces are falling apart. Whatever it is, the fact that Ukraine can capture important targets like these should spark a lot of optimism.

(*) for those that don’t know: lines of communication is just a fancy military term for logistics.

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I probably told this story in whatever iteration of the forum we were in back then, but shortly after Trump took office, I was living in a high rise in Baltimore not too far from the Inner Harbor. Being on a late night poker schedule, I’d wake up between 11am and 1pm. Well, one day I wake up around 9:30 or 10:00 to the sound of fighter jets buzzing my building. It was super loud and the building shook.

I look outside and I see like four or five fighter jets flying circles over downtown Baltimore and the Inner Harbor. I’m thinking, “WHAT THE FUCK? ARE WE AT WAR?” and remembering that on 9/11 there were fighter jets up for defense reasons, so maybe something like that happened?

They looped back around and flew in between my building and the high rise across from it, through not a particularly large gap - maybe a couple hundred yards. A few minutes later I finally figured out what was going on, when the Blue Angels took their turn practicing for the upcoming air show.

https://mobile.twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1567968558663217154

orc defenses cannot belief what fell

https://mobile.twitter.com/tonchev_/status/1567986443867533313

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some info from russian telegram channels that a counteroffensive attack started on Liman, south of Izyum

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1568282616373059586

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A successful attack here is what would be necessary to complete the encirclement.

at least one more account saying rhe AFU entered Izyum

I don’t believe that, unless they are talking about the larger district.

well, a couple of things here. Ru Mod is dead silent on counteroffensive. we have had 3 days of Ua claims confirmed and nothing in response. that’s not quite true, Ru fired upon Kharkiv again last night.

And we have ISW published claim that Izyum will be taken over in 72 hours, which should sound sillier than the o g “Kyiv will fall in 72 hours”. except it doesn’t sound silly at all somehow.

The ISW was talking about Kupyansk, not Izyum.

I always wondered what those “Speed limit enforced by aircraft” signs really meant. When I was a prosecutor, as near as I could figure, they were total bullshit.