Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

apparently US defense secretary deputy confirmed that antiradar rockets were modified to be launched off of ukrainian aircraft. the presence of the rocket was confirmed based on serial markings from a hit, but upto now we only knew that they could be launched via f16s. that does extend the effective range.

the crimea strike is speculated to be at least a Tochka-U or Harpoon based on the amount of damage. we’ll see what CIT says tomorrow in their segment.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1557093430915989506

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1557035297019510786

cotton reference there is that in russian, it is the same word (different accent) as the euphemism that RT/et al use for “explosion”.

I have to say I don’t quite get it. Maybe part of it is the word hygienic? As it happens, cotton is actually a good choice of clothing material if there’s a fire. Polyester would suck; might as well soak yourself in gasoline.

Special forces makes a lot of sense for simultaneous explosions. Radio controlled detonator.

Maybe but still unclear. There was already smoke before some of the explosions; that could be explained by multiple missile volleys, although I haven’t seen evidence of impact craters or a missile track on video or a report of incoming missiles being heard or air defenses being activated. But one report said there were 12 explosions. Maybe the security forces were at the beach?

dont type unclear in here

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Propaganda channels commonly say that the base wasn’t hit, but rather poor safety practices or cigarette butts causing “small explosions”, or <word that sounds like cotton>

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https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1557440583878299651

More pics in thread.

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I don’t know anything but from the location of the craters I’d guess missiles. Otherwise why not go after the aircraft more directly if you’re on-site? The berms probably saved some of the planes. Putin will probably stick with accidental fire, maybe add exacerbated by climate change.

Louis’s earlier post said 37, but I would not be surprised if both numbers were wrong. It’s hard to know these things as an outsider, because of all the incentives to lie.

The earlier posts were just counting how many planes were at airfield prior to attack. From the recent stuff we can see that all 37 were not destroyed. Could be more than 9 - especially if some damaged in ways not visible from satellite.

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Yeah I’m guessing modern airplanes don’t respond well to explosions like that around them

CIT is split on whether rocket or special ops. two explosions at different munitions stores only 1 second apart doesn’t sound like a missile strike, but triggered detonation. yet, delivering a blast like that by a planted bomb is … a challenge.

all we know from UA is that it was a “custom device”.

How many bombs could they plant? Definitely looks like some kind of missile strike. Dunno, could they have snuck precise artillery into Crimea, or had some hidden? Looks kinda like precise artillery to me, except the buildings are flattened. Dunno. Solid job tho.

https://mobile.twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1557261848373854210

Those things will kill you.

I can’t fully assess the validity of what this guy is doing but it sounds plausible. He says he can detect missile launch and re-entry from shock waves in the upper atmosphere and triangulate a location. He puts the launch point in Odessa.

https://twitter.com/rrichcord/status/1557169834215018496?t=FLuOkrI5a9HbLC7qFEO1XQ&s=19

damm i wonder if he can detect warp signatures from the cardassian cruiser that also went by

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If the Red October can be tracked via magnetic anomalies I don’t see why not.

Edit: to be clear, he’s not doing the signal detection himself, just looking at data from sensors at different locations that’s publicly available on the internet.

more power to him.

meanwhile someone found the perfect soundtrack

https://mobile.twitter.com/farciarz/status/1557488341058260993

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