They have made good on some of the threats. Finland had their gas cut off. Personally I think Lithuania should allow supplying Kaliningrad.
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https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1539520241906159616?s=20&t=9Zsz8hwqhrr_20wazzaXyQ
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1539534360143077376?s=20&t=9Zsz8hwqhrr_20wazzaXyQ
Maybe they will declare war.
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I could also see the Russian line on this to be that it was nothing but an accident so as to not admit the Ukrainians can hit back like that.
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I love how nonchalant they are. “Da, da. Is kamikaze drone. I can believe what fell.”
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https://twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1539362115076644864?s=20&t=9Zsz8hwqhrr_20wazzaXyQ
Kind of messed up this makes me think of Uvalde.
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on lithuania
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here’s a RU map of terrorism, e.g. “incidents” of fire, explosions, or shooting at military and strategic points on russian territory. UA isn’t talking about who did all of those, but it’s hard to not see a pattern.
most likely it would be a smaller coalition, nonetheless a much bigger problem for russia than they thought.
turkey may get bought off anyway in the end
Turkey is 100% going to get bought off. Just have to screw the Kurds at bit more than everyone was already doing
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earlier speculations were that it will be some form of economic aid/expansions to turkey, which does have some trade with scandinavia, so souring that relationship seems foolhardy. i haven’t seen anything that would screw the kurds who live in finland and sweden, but of course i wouldn’t trust erdogan at his word either. he’s apparently threatening a turkish special operation on the border with syria
From what I saw what that Turkey was holding out to force the Nordics to cut whatever ties they had with the PKK. I haven’t dived into it but I assume that the Nordics say something like the PKK isn’t a terrorist group and that gave them some trade/arms/something benefits and Turkey was holding out to force them to cut ties.
turkey made statements that they want pkk members or other named turkey nationals extradited, and some laws passed to outlaw the kurdish workers party. it’s a bonkers request, and finland correctly pointed out other nato countries don’t have such laws on the books, so … shrug.
turkey also wanted arms embargo lifted, which went into effect after its incursion into syria. that one might get softened to not affect arms transfers for nato purposes. we’ll see. i don’t think any current nato members want to support turkey trying annex any terr, and it’s prohibited by the nato charter itself.
comparison of Grad and HIMARS is pretty incredible. video is too large to bring it to UP
I swear people that eat at Cafe Milano are just trying to have their convos leaked, but I thought this meeting was interesting.
https://twitter.com/dlippman/status/1540281881073156097?t=voQj4CjRx4XCo5RCv5fIdg&s=19
Not sure if posted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sd4xRBuVs48
interesting stuff again.
Same guy gave an interview where he basically said there only 2 options left: Russia takes the Ukraine piece by piece or the West enters the war. If the west wants to commit to its values it might have to start fighting back against the aggressor even with military force. He thinks Russia could encircle the troops in Donbass but doesnt do it because Ukraine sends in material what the Russia can destroy with its artillery. Russia brings in two trains with military stuff each week but Ukrainians supply is very limited.
That sounds really grim. Interestingly the reports from British intelligence sound often much more promising but recently there arent many good news from the front.