Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

i don’t think this has hit any western media newswires yet. maria zakharova, russian FM press secretary, had a gigantic diatribe with a cnn reporter in st. petersburg. he let her walk all over himself with what about kosovo, and iraq, and syria, and ukraine 2014, and usa’s involvement in all of that. almost all of it wss completely staged. anyways, that’s not the point of the story. the entire diatribe is being cut into a thousand clips and distributed over youtube and tiktok. and there’s a stream of likes and positivite comments on the full interview flowing in. if you go in with a fresh profile, especially in the shorts tab, you get targeted with a ton of russian counter propaganda. it’s somewhat transparent but also probably more effective that shadow promoting a measheimer video from 10 years ago.

they are trying super hard to change the conversation away from how they are running out of bodies to go in front of m777 fire. bold strategy, let’s see how it works out.

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The training part is hard to believe for stuff like modern artillery. It is not days but I would be surprised if you can’t train an existing artillery squad to use new modern artillery in less than a month.

Its not just knowing how to shoot its a lot more than that. I found this thread interesting:
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1536474288261414913?t=TqHFN-kqCnCpVUR0G-dGLA&s=19

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1537077065169657857?t=NVVNEPjHU6X9HHovZjsLgw&s=19

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More from @MarkHertling:

During an interview, the terrific @MarquardtA asked me why the US wasn’t delivering the weapons “some” in UKR said they had requested (1000 artillery, 500 tanks, etc).

I cited @SecDef press conference from Madrid yesterday, where Austin rebuked the same question. 1/9

The @SecDef noted he was specifically coordinating equipment transfer and weapons priorities with Ukraine’s Defense Minister Reznikov.

Reznikov’s top priorities are:
-Long Range fires
-Armor vehicles
-Mid-range ADA systems
-Howitzers

Then Austin provided some numbers…2/

-Reznikov asked for 10 battalions of artillery, the west has provided 12.
-R asked for 200 tanks, UKR has received 270
-Ukraine received 97,000 anti-tank missiles, more than they requested, which is also more than the number of tanks in the entire world. 3/

-The west has shipped 500,000 rds of arty ammo, most is precision GPS
–POL, UK, NL, Canada, GE are all sending long-range precision strike wpns & ammo (HIMARs & MLRS).
-US sending Harpoon anti-ship missiles…and more

Training & support for all is also included. 4//

Austin was speaking from Madrid, where the 3d meeting of the “contact group” was coordinating weapon “packages” to ship to UKR.

That group now has 50 nations…Georgia & Moldova are now a part.

National “packages” all combine weapons, training & maintenance support. 5/

Austin addressed how western systems didn’t have to “match” RU weapon in #s, as capabilities far outweigh RUn quality. (critically important point)

GEN Milley also reported those training on HIMARs in Germany finished yesterday & those systems will be operational. 6/

.@MarquardtA also played a tape of UKR MinDef Reznikov saying his engagement w/ Austin & other inf the contact group allowed him to “look them all in the eyes.”

Reznikov then said, “I know they support us & will continue to support us…Sec Austin understands our needs.” 7/

There will be those who report on what “someone” in UKR says is needed, or how it should’ve been there faster or earlier, or that someone on the front lines doesn’t have all they require.

But as a former soldier, this equipping effort on day 113 of the fight… 8/

- which is supporting & growing a modern army in combat - is extremely challenging.

It will continue…& there will likely be a “next phase” where the equipping, training, & maintenance needs will be different & tougher.

In my view, UKR still has the advantage. 9/9

Dunno why everyone isn’t closer to being on the same page wrt to the numbers of weapons requested vs supplied.

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special spy operation is also going great

bellingcat article has a lot more. worth several bags of popcorn with butter.

all sides have so far underestimated the war timeline, although to different degrees. 4-6 weeks is roughly what they plan for, but something always develops and seems to move the decisive battle another 4-6 weeks into the future. but i am starting to lean that the predictors of a long war were correct. the conflict ground to a halt in 2014, even though it took months to concede donetsk airport, until it spilled again in february. i feel like some catalyst needs to occur for the situation to develop quickly once again. but in the other hand even azovstal and severodonetsk didn’t break the conflict open for either side, so we are just waiting for the next catalyst. like khekson, or kerch, while russia is trying to engineer a catalyst of their own in donetsk, or some western party to switch positions.

https://twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1537499313043128322?s=20&t=29CHdifee9ZlOw5WCRgvyg

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Totally agree that ongoing maintenance and support for anything we give them is a big issue and not done in a 4 week training. Not sure how that factors into what Ukraine is asking for because if they have more than enough they could just take the ones that need maintenance back to the NATO border and have NATO to swap them around. Also no idea how Russia would respond to a NATO maintenance camp right on the Ukrainian border.

Apparently Ukraine has acquired more man portable antitank weapons than the cumulative tank force of the whole world.

They are also using those against non-MBT vehicles.

Macron’s phone calls don’t seem to be having the intended effect.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1537754478945918976?s=20&t=3c0fzFnQj5dmUbmPEfIEow

That’s certainly one way to frame a shot.

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Ukrainian general admitted that they lose about 30/40% sometimes up to 50% of equipment during the fights, including: 1300 infantry fighting vehicles, 400 tanks and 700 artillery.

https://twitter.com/ivanastradner/status/1538516435277848576

What do people think about the Russian threats towards Lithuania over not transporting stuff to their exclave? Any more legitimacy to these threats?

given the trouble they’ve had with their current boondoggle and the fact that they’ve actually managed to make NATO stronger, I don’t see how they could actually start anything with Lithuania.

that sort of assumes rational actors, it seems likely that putin is no longer completely rational, so anything could happen.

Russia’s got all they can handle right now and have never made good on any of their threats against the West. I don’t expect them to start now.

https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1537520113787838465?s=20&t=Fz3AC3r4ZVWfvmxapPo_sg
Since the translation doesn’t transfer from twitter: Blah blah blah Europe will keep Ukraine free.
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1538895676083404802?s=20&t=Fz3AC3r4ZVWfvmxapPo_sg
Traitor