Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

russia is acting like it has nothing to do with that. DNR is a sovereign country, putin can’t meddle.

jfc. shoigu should just beria him already

Damn that’s a hell of a wiki article. Not sure if you mean in the sense of what he did to Stalin or what Khrushchev did to him.

beria didn’t kill stalin, but he was probably one of a few who could have pulled it off. and he probably wished he did something differently shortly after joe laid in his own piss

Kid should have asked for The Rock instead, but this is cool.

https://twitter.com/wsj/status/1535698466848006147?s=21&t=ZFwtCWrMnDFeY6gVT5Um2w

Don’t worry, @VoteForSocialists will have your spirits lifted in no time. At least I hope so. He’s come through for me in the past when I’m feeling the same way.

Yeah, it’s looking grim. Got to look pretty hard to find something hopeful.

https://twitter.com/jamescrabtree/status/1535799213342478336?t=ux_lJ2Qgw9_e1TIk_0BwFQ&s=19

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It has become a war of attrition which puts all the power in the hands of NATO. If they continue to ship weapons, ammo, supplies etc. at a high rate and ramp up production of things like javelins and stingers then Russia can’t win in a meaningful way. If NATO just used this to get rid of their old surplus then I don’t see how Ukraine can hold.
We won’t know for weeks unless we get evidence NATO is indeed shipping long range artillery platforms and enough ammo for them already without making it public.

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Ukraine can launch Javelins a lot faster than the US can manufacture them. Stingers aren’t even in production any more. Fortunately Russia will deplete their AFVs first. Both sides will need to ramp up production of precision guided munitions, drones and shells.

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Rheinmetall said the first batch of Marder tanks are ready for delivery. Its now up to the german government to give the approval for export.

From recent articles I also a little worried about the quality of the troops defending the rear area behind the Donbass. I read something about the Ukrainian territorial defense forces who arent equipped or trained as well as the current frontline forces.

it is looking grim at the moment. ukraine is currently running out of ammunition for their soviet era artillery. and 155mm equipment is not in large enough numbers to replace them completely. i think javelins do still get used, but without close combat not as much. without long range artillery to engage in duels, even the switchblade isn’t enough to hit enough russian targets. they simply don’t replace 5000 shells a day fired by a well trained crew.

additionally russia has figured out a tactic that “works” for them. they shell a defensive position in a town until it’s rubble and then move in with newly mobilized “infantry” under drone surveillance. when they inevitably get killed, artillery corrects their fire and makes more rubble, this time with tanks shooting from a distance. this pushes out UA forces with minimal attrition to special ops and tanks. most newly dead numbers that ukraine is reporting are draftees from dnr/lnr. they have almost zero combat value. but russia has an unlimited supply of shells, ukraine has run out for now. it’s a mocrocosm of aleppo, but played out for every inch of donbass.

additionally russia is using missiles and airstikes on strategic targets in the west, a concern is putin willl take out electricity production in ukraine ahead of next winter. it’s going to get very cold.

having said that, russia’s problems are still getting worse. their new tactic netted them ever smaller gains in donbass for a month now. they are still constantly running out of men willing to fight. population of draft age knows what’s up, everyone knows the shadow draft is happening. domestic sabotage looks to be real. tiktoks of many new military graves is breaking through the propaganda channels. maybe it will accelerate the dissent a bit.

there’s an absolutely horror show of a video making the rounds. some has been singers are belching out a soviet post-war somber hit “Just one victory, we need one victory for all of us at any price”, to a soldier burnt head to toe in a hospital bed. i’ve never seen cringe defined so well.

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https://twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1536669904795058178?s=20&t=H_Jny0ObBXMJrcjB6EKYAQ

the pope never listened to revolutions podcast apparently

Cover of a Polish magazine

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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1536902405362798600?t=lTK6DH7VLkl_4Dnls33DQQ&s=19

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I guess the Pope has been reading Mershemeimeiememereremere

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1537124207112462336?s=20&t=ioref-bxSqS0AYzwXa_0jw
No one can seem to get the numbers straight but there’s a big difference between what’s being asked for and what is promised or likely to be delivered soon.

ukraine is understandably asking for the moon. to be clear, 1000 howitzers would make them a bigger artillery army than half of europe combined, or the marines. with everything they are asking for, they would turn out to be europe’s largest force. basically like the red army from ww2.

it would for sure eventually win them back a lot of territory, but it’s not a realistic ask. the US is probably saying you can have 10x fewer MLRS, but you can have 5x more rockets for each to fire, and that’s probably a more sober way of looking at it.

From what I watched today they are running out of soviet era weapons and ammunition and there isnt much left around the globe which they could buy. It takes too long to train them on western weapons and get them delivered. The assumption that within the next 4-6 weeks the war could be decided and it might not be in Ukraine’s favor if they have nothing to fight back with.

the reports keep saying that ukraine is already well on its way to training with nato heavy weaponry. it’s also much simpler to operate than soviet crap. in a sense, this it the most technologically advanced war to date, with most tech capable soldiers. i don’t think training is an issue of the same scale as logistical support for ukraine. main issue is if they are going to start to run out of western weapons due to seasons, foreign elections, closing supply routes.