Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1532052530569654277?t=3wmUJyOdBWTUK3upJakFGw&s=19

That’s four (4) of these artillery pieces and weeks of training required. Not going to make a difference any time soon. Similar story on the drones, if that happens.

usually this has been already in the works for days when they announce. that’s what happened with m777.

i think hopefully they are on the battlefield in less than three weeks

The Russians should be the first to know.

I kind of want to address the moral questions people keep bringing up but it’s not like I’m an expert. Anyway, I don’t want Russian soldiers to die but it’s preferable to even worse outcomes. Putin crossed a threshold. The usual rules don’t apply.

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“It is not such a mythical picture … There are new rules in the world now. Let all those war ministers gathering in Kyiv think a little about what it would be like to wake up in Moscow.”

New rules, people.

What do the new rules, and the usual rules (your previous post), signify? Do you mean (your previous post) new/different rules apply regarding discourse/support of actions against soldiers/citizens (on the Russian side)? I guess the new rules in that article are obvious - the ramblings of one of the many, near universal, psychotic stooges in Russian parliament.

It’d be really interesting if the action in the east was cover for Ukraine cutting off the south and north.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1532179831214964736?s=21&t=NOVCcC8jZQT6rHsVbOhYvA

Well it’s a big topic probably better discussed by philosophers and I feel too mentally weighed down to get very far, but here’s a start: Any set of rules is just a shared fantasy. I guess it starts with some basic set of assumptions and principles but they are somewhat arbitrary. They depend on history and culture and personal preference. The rules a hundred years ago were different and they will be different a hundred years hence. Ultimately they can’t be defended logically. Like you call that Russian politician psychotic and we can agree his “new rules” are bananas, but like that’s just our opinion against his, man.

Under the “usual rules”, we value peace and justice and exhibit goodwill towards our fellows as far as possible. Transgressors, though, will be dealt with by shaming at a minimum. Maybe banishment. Or prison. Even execution in extreme cases. Whether or not we acknowledge it, dehumanization is part of that. They are no longer part of the group. They are out. Fuck them. Maybe you or I as individuals don’t agree with that? Sorry, too bad for us. Those are the rules.

There are “usual rules” for war too. Those rules are different from peacetime rules, but there are still rules. First rule is you need a good reason to go to war. Second is you have to declare war. Somewhere in there are rules about no raping, no pillaging, and no murdering civilians or POWs.

Of course, those rules get broken all the time. Usually (hopefully), not systematically and on the orders of political leaders, but it’s not like any of this has the force of physical law. So Putin can break these rules if he wants to, which he does, and he has, all of them. In doing that, he crossed a threshold as far as most people are concerned. It’s banishment time. Dehumanization goes with that. It might be ugly and nasty and uncivilized and oh man what have we come to, but that’s the recourse when the rules are broken.

So I’m going to call Putin names and hope for a humiliating defeat and that he loses power. And I’ll support Ukraine because they’re doing the suffering and the dying fighting him. Russians I know don’t support Putin and left the country long ago to escape persecution so I personally won’t go as far as demonizing Russia or Russians or Russian soldiers, but I understand the desire to lash out.

There will be consequences of the fight, of course. It’s possible the war spreads, economies are damaged, people go hungry and starve, there’s general unrest, maybe there’s a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. People say this war isn’t worth the risks and rationally maybe that’s true. And man, should we really be making these choices for the whole planet? Brazil and China and India sure don’t want to go along with us. But we’re not entirely ruled by reason. Reason isn’t the source of morality. It might not be smart, but sometimes you stand up to the bully even if he’s bigger than you are.

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Thanks for the well thought out post. I guess I mainly wasn’t clear whether you were referring to Putin or … → Russian leadership → United Russia members → etc → siberian farmers.

I have a lot to get off my chest, I guess. I don’t really know anything. We’re all getting dirty. I have the most contempt for those with the most power doing the worst shit, and in this situation it sure looks to me like there’s one particular guy with a lot to answer for.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/06/01/himars-rockets-longrange-ukraine-biden/

Kahl said that the United States has a “fair amount of capacity” to send additional HIMARS, but U.S. officials want to assess how they are used before making future deliveries.

“We need to get information … about how useful they are and how they’re being used on the battlefield,” he said.

It sounds like the US is trying to calibrate the exact number of systems to deploy to achieve whatever their goal is. I’m a bit skeptical. There are definitely concerns about escalation and postwar stability, but this seems a little too fancy. And potentially it generates more blowback. Not providing weapons because they’re too sensitive is easy to defend, but only providing a few at a time because reasons seems sketchier.

sick thread

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1531067758422773761

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Lol Twitter. Wen Elon fix

https://twitter.com/StevenBeynon/status/1532429021308506112

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Hi, this is Javelin Tech Support, have you tried turning your missile off and back on again?

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https://twitter.com/otregub/status/1532994901297795072?s=21&t=Tm4BaNlrfvJTacGfjVkNog

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1532866786005336064?t=l49VkQAWMkcfet7p21l3_g&s=19

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https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1532951921971036162
https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1532951925418770432?s=20&t=DZCJUpkVRABRxJcxYcuR3g

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https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1533123420443004931