Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

tell me again how orcs are offensive to you

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Oh good, this thread should have 100 new posts today.

The presentation isn’t the most polished and it isn’t up to the minute, but this is a pretty good summary of the fight in the last few weeks. He sprinkles in some interesting observations. Most of the current heavy fighting is in a remarkably small area.

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there’s an actual law in russia, where it is criminal to be disrespectful or offensive towards the church. e.g. what pussy riot did when they sang “god mother, kill putin” inside the moscow cathedral for a viral video as a protest.

even more recently, two young people were in trouble for taking photos with the cathedral in the background. the photos were mildly sexual in nature, fully clothed though.

but destroying some of the orthodox cultural sites in ukraine is apparently within the framework and the spirit of the law though. fucking selfhating orc assholes

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I don’t even know what it means!

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there’s at least a dozen images of tractors blown up by land mines while trying to do their farm stuff.

image

and new video confirmation of shelling in thr center of donetsk. propaganda social channels are starting to immediately blame long range equipment from the west.

escalation in progress

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yeah it’s scary to see.

hopefully some rational people in Russia remember that they really don’t want that smoke from NATO. If they start striking at Poland, it’s not going to go well.

You might know, where can I find Russia 1 streams these days? I used to watch a fair bit of Solovyov (native speaker) before they banned him on google to get a sense of what they’re lying about.

i dunno, i get enough clips of that mudozvon through counterinformation channels. i hear his channel is pretty big on telegram. maybe he reposts his tv programs there too

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1533201345062309888

I don’t think anyone inside russia is this dumb. Four months ago there may have been some brass at the top, completely insulated from the truth, who thought they could go toe to toe with NATO, especially in a case where the US was noncommittal, but there is literally zero chance even the most dedicated apparatchik has not noticed A) the struggle they’ve had to do anything at all in Ukraine and B) the fact that NATO is now decidedly stronger than it was a year ago

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Not to mention that a select subset of NATO arms has them completely outgunned, and they haven’t even faced the best non-nuclear stuff. I can’t see them striking a NATO country without being committed to nuclear armageddon.

Rationally you’re 100% right, but history is littered with people in charge making stupid irrational decisions. That makes me nervous.

Russia hasn’t acted on a single threat they’ve made, and they’ve made plenty. As best we know, they haven’t even hit a NATO truck delivering weapons – something that would seem to be in their capability and would be the sort of loss NATO would probably have to just accept as part of the game. Seems like with every new threat we forget how empty the last one was.

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You have an ongoing bizarre definition of “escalation”.

Edit: and I just hope no Ukrainian forces use the long range missiles to hit targets inside Russia, because Russian officials essentially said they would strike NATO targets outside Ukraine if that happened and I don’t think that is an empty threat.

the attack on donetsk is at best guess a russian battery firing to justify some geopolitical (or similar scale) response. it would be a speed record if US gave an MRLS capable of striking that far behind enemy lines, and it already moved into position to launch. but even stupider for ukraine to waste first strike on donetsk.

what im seeing on the donetsk channels right now, the residents are not fooled, it came from really close, seconds from fire to explosions.

perhaps i should have put “escalation” in quotes because that’s how it will be presented by simonyan/skabeeva.

putin addressed it exactly once, claiming that western artillery equipment is being hit one by one. it is likely ukraine suffered an attack on one or more of its batteries, we have not yet seen pro-russia channels show a captured or destroyed us artillery equipment on video. so the claim is dubious so far.

from western POV, russia threatened a lot, but didn’t retaliate yet. by russian viewpoint, becoming more cruel and determined in capturing donbass outright was an escalation. compared to original goal of toppling Ze and installing yanukovich, of course it’s an escalation. so is the theft of grain and metal commodities from ukraine southern ports. ukraine fought back too much, russia is going to take things away now as punishment. it’s yet another warcrime

putin’s also holding more hostages since a month ago. azov obviously, but also potentially hindreds of thousands deported donbass residents. not to mention almost 14m total displaced within ukraine and in europe.

winning the social media war

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1532897424712286214

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Oh man he calls them orcs though!