i don’t think i’ve said that, and i can no longer describe the war as a single HE hand, it’s more like a limit HU session, and russia has not only lost a bunch of chip advantage but also revealed a lot of tells.
russia cannot win quickly, and they may not be able to win slowly either, although situation will change if they can freeze the lines for a substantial amount of time. they can certainly lose either quickly or slowly. i am guessing that the attrition of soldiers has slowed down, even as ukraine keeps steadily adding 100-200 per day which isn’t much lower than average for all of three months. but we can also posit that all of donbass is very much under the fog of war right now. there are few war correspondents around izyum.
my take is that us intel tremendously, or decisively, helps ukraine chances. and additional weaponry etc is also nothing to discount. us is sending patriots anti aircraft now. gg russian planes.
ofc, sample size applies, but historically in “modern” warfare, no nation ever won while fighting against as big of a coalition.
People keep telling me not to worry. Progressively more alarming warnings keep coming
Seems like this would open a path to escalation. The Russian Black Sea fleet looks like it would be awfully vulnerable if some Harpoons got loose. Oh wait:
Harpoons are the old (but updated) missile systems too. Doubt the Russian navy can survive that, much less the newer reasons we don’t have a social safety net.
Does potential mass starvation give Putin extra blackmail outs or does it crank down sanctions and bring on condemnation from India, Pakistan, Mexico and other countries that have been relatively quiet up to now? Can anything budge Xi?
if i expressed that, i meant that americans are probably not going to starve. but on a global scale, yeah lots of countries will have to search for replacement grains. my thinking was rice and corn reserves would be selling more.
but the real kicker is harvests are projected to slip. not a great combination of factors for the world, the black sea blockade created an acute drop in supply, and widespread drought is even more impactful in terms of total production upto and including this year.