They won’t accept Docusign?
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That’s what I thought at the beginning of this based on current production.
Europe is importing 185 billion cubic meters/year from Russia. Ukraine’s estimated reserves are about 1 trillion cubic meters. At least potentially there is a lot more. Even if it is just a small dent, Putin doesn’t strike me as the tolerant type.
I’d add that European gas consumption has decreased significantly over the last decade or so. Safe to say Putin won’t be happy with a smaller share of a shrinking pie. Edit: this is less clear than it seemed at first but I still wouldn’t want to be Putin’s accountant.
It’s a shame we won’t provide air support because obviously the nuke threat was a ruse as keeeeed and everyone pretending to handwring over that already knew but whatever lets just let Putin slowly murder people because it’s better to not get involved 
We’re involved and Ukraine is winning.
The US/NATO getting directly involved now is an even worse idea than it was at the start of the war. It seems Ukraine is capable of winning without air support, so why risk it?
I feel like there is no place on the internet more confident in Ukraine than unstuck. Most of the other stuff I read is a lot less optimistic. It’s not like they are saying Russia is winning. More like it’s an AK vs QQ situation. In real life, it doesn’t matter which side of it I’m on, I always feel like I’m gonna lose.
Supervillain is still in play.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1527502528686039049?t=LSgqCERSnCfmcefFtpyaCw&s=19
Like, sentiment from hoi polloi, or the opinion of relevant experts? I wouldn’t mind if you cited some pieces from more pessimistic sources, but at the same time, Ukraine has shattered (not necessarily all that knowledgeable) pundit expectations at every step: they’ll get crushed in a few days, Kyiv didn’t fall right away but will get encircled and will succumb to siege, they didn’t take Kyiv but they can shore up their holdings in the east, Mariupol will fall any day now (but held out for months), the force by Lyman was supposed to be encircled early on in the war, etc. I was one of those pessimists, but for now, I’m going to lean on the side of the Ukrainian forces being able to keep doing what they aim to do as long as they keep showing consistent results. Their only real failure has been Mariupol, and that is failing after having held out for longer than anyone thought imaginable under impossible conditions. This isn’t to say that the massive civilian casualties have been some sort of success, but rather that the Ukrainian armed forces are able to achieve strategic successes in the face of the indiscriminate violence of the Russian forces.
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That’s fine. All I’m saying is that Ukraine has QQ. That doesn’t really give me a feeling of confidence even though I’m technically ahead.
I mean, I’m not saying it’s a lock that Russia won’t hold onto some extra territory, but I don’t think they’re going to be able to hold onto the entirety of Donbas or hold a land bridge to Crimea, and I think there’s ~no chance of them taking anything outside that region. I guess the exception would be Trump winning and helping Russia instead of Ukraine.
OK, but Putin doesn’t have AK.
Well he doesn’t have Q2 either, which is the conclusion you’d come to if you read a steady diet of VFS posts.
It’s more like he has two undercards and needs to hit running two pair, but he’ll have chips left if he loses.
Not even suited connectors?
The poker hand analogies seem bad. There most likely isn’t going to be a clear winner. Not soon anyway.
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Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.
Yeah poker analogies don’t work because as long as the west keeps pumping Ukraine full of modern weapons, there will be infinite rivers for Ukraine.
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There also continues to be a small risk Putin flips the table and uses WMDs.
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