My odds assume his fat fast food clogged heart doesn’t explode.
1 Like
I probably need to take a break and detach. I’m having weird ass dreams about this guy. Had one last night where theres an international dinner/forum. Trump is ragging on Putin. The head of Greece interrupts to scold and lecture him. Trump gets angry. Tells him to get up. They get face to face sort of lean heads into each other like boxers clenching. The head of Sweden steps in. He and Trump go head to head. Then they start throwing haymakers. Trump KO’s him. Leaders step in to hold everyone back. Sweden gets up again, takes a few more punches. I wake up.
5 Likes
Even money, I’d still take the side that he doesn’t have a third term if his death results in a push. It’s disturbingly close though.
I can’t psychologically handle having money on this horror movie getting a third term.
I do genuinely think the odds have gotten way better in the last two weeks.
1 Like
if you’re paying attention obviously not
everyone else though far more mad about that than again anything trump’s doing
I don’t know how to combat that. It’s just yelling into a void.
3 Likes
Trump ain’t getting a third term, odds are easily less than 10% (and yes the fact I chose 10% instead of 1% or 0.01% means the odds are alarmingly high but they are way less than 50%)
1 Like
I think we are drawing pretty live to Trump just ignoring the pardons and going after them anyway. SCOTUS will rule 5-4 that during the constitutional conventions a bellboy once said presidents can’t pardon family members or people named Fauci.
1 Like
My point is that you can’t look at any specific 10 minute interaction and draw holistic assumptions from it. Can we assume that Trump and Obama in the backroom smoking cigars laughing at the rubes who think there’s any difference between them from a video of them in the same room talking to each other?
I don’t think so.
I think big picture wise we’re going to see more resistance as Trump’s actions start becoming more and more impactful in people’s lives. He’s already reversed course on these wholesale freezes, at least temporarily, and that was small fries with what’s about to come down. I think the resistance is going to start at the grassroots and then finally the Dem politicians are going to start glomming on.
Sadly though there is popular will for a lot stronger immigration enforcement and for general TERF stuff and that enforcement is legal and has been de jure legal for a very long time. Dem politicians are trying to navigate the new landscape and they’re rationally going to be more subdued until they figure out where to draw lines that will let them win elections.
Don’t get me wrong it’s going to get pretty bad.
7 Likes
Maybe I’m catastrophizing, but ya I could see this.
Trump is going at this “shock and awe”/Blitzkrieg pace to overwhelm and break people down. People will riot. Insurrection act. Not sure how long it will take but it seems like one endgame scenario.
https://bsky.app/profile/djinnandtonic.bsky.social/post/3lh36ck27pk2y
1 Like
The Obama thing is hardly the only data point. Take the entirety of the past decade and every dem action.
1 Like
Lmao at this centrist gaslighting.
An unelected oligarch is attempting to seize control of the treasury following multiple purges of career civil servants. That is already a worst case scenario event, just in the first 12 days.
3 Likes
Well it’s all terrible and everyone is fucked but I guess this vindicates the people who lamented how Dems never did anything in power because somehow the Manchin/Sinema dipshits kept anything good from being enacted.
Surely appears that the president can unilaterally do whatever the fuck he wants and you just have to groove on it, guess we should have tried that.
3 Likes
Okay? That doesn’t imply a high chance of Trump getting a third term.
Like even if it were already completely 100% legal for Trump to get a third term the odds of it would not be much over 50%.
I know Clovis is saying “conditional on him being alive” but even then:
There is some chance he is a Biden level vegetable in four years
There is some chance he fucks things up enough to lose support among his base
There is some chance he fucks things up enough to galvanize opposition support
And then on top of that he needs to get past the constitutionality of getting a third term which is independently way less than 50% to happen.
None of this has anything to do with being “centrist” it is independent of my political views.
From someone who really wants the dems to push back harder, this simply isn’t true.
That could happen. My thought experiment (and what I’d do if I were Trump/Republicans)
-
Congressional hearings and subpoena the people who got pardons as witnesses (Faucci wrt Covid, Cheney wrt Jan6th, Biden family for influence peddling, whatever). Just having the hearings is good optics.
-
There is precedent that a pardon means you can’t invoke the 5th Amendment (it’s murky if you might face state charges and you only received a federal pardon), so if they did actually do illegal stuff, you might get them to talk and implicate other people. Or they might mention something that leaves them open to charges in a red state. Or they might commit perjury (which iirc isn’t usually covered by pardons if it happens after it was issued and the pardon wasn’t for the perjury charge).
Bottom line, even if he doesn’t challenge the pardons directly, he can jam people up and put them in legal peril (especially if Congress and state AGs are on board)
2 Likes
Moreover, fighting has required not realizing that the good guys would lose the civil war you describe
The average Trump voter believes only dems will have their faces eaten by the leopards.
There isn’t any way for trump to burn it down w/o it resulting in many of his supporters having their faces eaten also.
Hopefully the follows thru with the tariffs and crashes the auto industry, this will be a good start in the swing states leading into midterm.
+1
No way the side against the unlimited use of state violence and the government’s disdain for law wins a civil war unless it’s dramatically more popular than the other side and it isn’t.
3 Likes