TopShot and other NFTs Part II: Electric Boondoggle

2nd Cube hype article in past handful of days on WSJ.

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cube only go up

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Probably last day to get cubes below 2k imo.

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Yup, I have >15 moments but have not spent $99+ in the marketplace because the marketplace is a fucking joke without using a bot or tools. Not sure why the $99 requirement doesn’t include pack purchases as well.

Newcomers will still have access to common packs. They are trying to eliminate exactly what you are talking about, people who are only there to pack flip. If you have bought packs and held I agree that you should be eligible though.

It’s hard for me to see how losing pack flippers or prospective pack flippers could possibly be a negative. It isn’t like they need demand for packs. Also putting moments in the hands of people who actually intend to hold at least some of them cannot be a bad thing.

They have lost way more in fees from the market losing 75% of value than from one round of pack flipping post drop. They also aren’t trying to discourage selling moments though, they are trying to discourage people who only buy packs to immediately sell them.

I tend to agree a Stars like VIP program would probably do wonders. Simply banning pack flipping would also solve the problem without pissing off any loyal customers.

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This is true, but how many people are actually buying and holding moments because they are “true collectors?” A dozen? Five? I would guess that anybody who is buying and holding is doing so for investment purposes, not for the fun of collecting.

And that’s the problem with NFTs and physical card collecting now, as well. It’s become an investing game for adults. When you can’t buy a pack of fucking baseball cards at Target because grown-ups stake out the delivery trucks, that’s a problem.

Holding for investment purposes seems fine to me.

I agree, it’s fine. My problem with the entire deal is that something that should be fun is not fun. It’s just a stock market. Topshot is trying to make us believe that this is a new, fun hobby where we can enjoy collecting moments of our favorite players and teams, perhaps even partake in the activity with our children, but in the meantime, the cheapest moment is $5 - god forbid a kid wants to collect anything having to do with their favorite player - and everything is a big, tech bro, day trading, circle jerk.

EDIT: Perhaps I just have to adjust my view of collecting.

I think we are slowly moving there. It’s good that TS is flooding the market with the common moments, as they should be worth very little. Right now, you can get a moment of most players for under $30, and the majority are under $10. That seems right. Common packs right now are only slightly EV+ and may soon be EV- at the rate things are going, which I think would be good.

The problem is that they are also continuing to issue new rare/legendary packs and still at prices where they are free money. This attracts all the pack flippers who are bad for TS and also tanks the market for the older rare/legendries - which is really bad since it hurts the few true collectors/people investing for long term. Restricting access to these hugely profitable packs is a start, but really, they just need to stop giving away free money via packs.

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The rare pack being released today is probably only marginally +EV, the list of MGLE players is horrific

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Kids are spending 100s of dollars on in game purchases/skins/etc. I don’t think $15 is much of a hurdle for a kid who wants a NBA nft of Giannis or something. Hell even Lebrons are at like $65-70 right now.

I agree the product isn’t that good or fun though. That needs improvement.

Today’s packs are still likely at least 2-3x. The cheapest MGLE right now is $200. Even if we assume new MGLE’s go at a discount, I doubt the lowest is below $150. Add in 5 basic cards at minimum of $5 each, and that’s a guaranteed 75% return, if you get the absolute worst pack.

I’d say EV of the pack is still $250-$300. Not as crazy as before, but still too much free money.

I just realized I haven’t even watched the majority of my moments, am I a True Collector or a total scumbag?

You’re a total collector

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Is it the first time they’ve done this rebound pack thing? I feel like it wasn’t explained very well and is not working properly

3rd time i believe? At least 2nd, worked pretty well for the holo drop, you just stay in line and you get a commons pack for the normal price of 9.

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not a bad rebound pack. saving up my queue rungood for jordan ultimate legendary packs

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My pack drop today

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