I think the playbook is pretty well defined for Rs losing these lawsuits in red states. Just stall/ignore.
Judges are deeply troubled. At least they are putting it to a special master now instead of back to the state legislature.
Came here to post, great news for this state
I have very little understanding of how our electoral college actually works, but can someone explain why Trump doesn’t just run as a 3rd party? Seems to me he’d be a lock to win the presidency with Biden and the Republican nominee splitting the vote
In fact, I don’t know why he doesn’t just start a 3rd MAGA party, but now that I’m thinking about it I guess it would be a mess getting Republican Congress and politicians on board. Did I answer my own question? Is that why?
Huh? I don’t understand your logic about splitting the vote and how that helps Trump win. What votes for Biden are now going to go to either Trump or the R candidate?
If in Biden vs. Trump (or R candidate), Biden wins a state 52-48, how does Trump win that state when its Biden vs. Trump vs. R candidate?
Creating a third party would require at least a little bit of money and effort, so a total non-starter there. Also, you need a majority of electoral votes to win. Best he could likely hope for is to win enough electoral votes to throw it to congress and hope that literally every Republican rep votes against their own party.
Yeah I don’t get why Trump would even want to abandon the RNC. He owns the party and its resources. Better question is why Chris Christie doesn’t go 3rd party (answer: it’s a lot of work and he wouldn’t be invited to the GOP debates).
Look into the 1992 Presidential election to see why the candidate who benefits from splitting the votes is the one who doesn’t really overlap with the third party.
Biden wouldn’t be splitting votes with the R nominee, Trump would.
Also 2000.
Gore and Nader split the left of center vote. Even though this split was incredibly uneven, it was enough for Bush to win the presidency.
From what I’ve heard, MAGA represents 35% of the electorate, if not a bit more. If the two current parties split the remaining 65%, that leaves Trump with a plurality
I understand that’s the popular vote and the electoral college doesn’t work that way (or Trump wouldn’t have won in 2016). I was just wondering why Trump wouldn’t have a better chance that way. As it is, no Dem will vote for him and at least some Republicans won’t. But some Independents will. But I do see why he wouldn’t want to lose the backing of the RNC and all the benefits that come with it. If by some miracle he doesn’t win the nom, I think it’s 1000% he runs as a 3rd party
Your flaw in logic is assuming that split would be even. It wouldn’t even be close.
The R candidate finishes a very distant third in a Biden-Trump-R election. Trump gets all the MAGA voters, Biden gets all the Dems PLUS everyone voting to keep Trump out of office…what’s left for the Republican?
A simplified way of thinking about it is that in order to win in 2024, Trump has to basically win all of the states he won in 2020, plus pick up some states he lost.
So, the Republican candidate would basically have to be some sort of centrist that manages to pull a significant number of votes away from Biden in swing states (enough for Biden to lose, and not enough for the Republican to win) Also, if the Republican wins any states that Trump won in 2020 (think a state like Utah that is Republican but not particularly MAGAy), Trump has to win additional states to make up for that loss. I guess it is theoretically possible, but I just don’t see a Republican candidate that would pull a ton of Biden voters in a Biden-Trump-Random R race.
The bigger risk in my opinion is a three way race with Trump as the R, Biden as the D and No Labels “Centrist” as a third party. That race could legitimately pull soft Biden supporters away while Maga + Rs that just vote red no matter who are enough to flip the states Biden narrowly won in 2020
UTAH!
Alabama house speaker on Twitter after the ruling:
The legislature worked together to meet the court’s vague requirements, so today’s ruling is disappointing,” the speaker said. “Above all, it’s frustrating that the court chooses to legislate when the Alabama Legislature knows our citizens, hometowns, and communities better than any federal judge.”
Make two majority black districts was vague yep
Note that Biden got 38% of the vote in Utah in 2020. If Trump genuinely pursued a 3rd party run and put energy behind it (i.e. he starts tweeting again), Biden would have a decent shot of a clean sweep.
Alabama conservatives Don’t Even See Color, ldo.
Can embed tweets again. Don’t need screenshots.