The TSLA Market / Economy

the SWONGS in this story are great and i feel like many of us can relate haha

McCaskill went out partying with his friends to celebrate his big score. When he returned, he checked the stock, and it had ticked back down to a penny. “So I didn’t make my big 90,000, but I still made 30.”

There was a steep learning curve. “I remember making $60,000 one day and not being aware that my puts expired the next day,” he says. “And the next day it was all gone.”

But it turned out that the economy had a little bit further to slide. “I remember Bank of America just almost going under right when January started and it’s like, ‘Oh, you got to be kidding me.’”

He got wiped out. “I mean, zero, my account was zero.”

The infusion of cash into the big players on Wall Street lubricated the markets and got stocks moving up again—once again wiping McCaskill’s accounts clean. Every which way he turned, he was getting killed. He could not seem to make sense of the madness happening in the markets. So he took a break.

every time he’d scrape together an extra $500 he’d stick it in his investment account and swing for the fences.

Over the next eight months, the stock went all the way up to $1.30 a share. “And the big dream for a grinder, I’ll say like me, was always to get your bank account to a million dollars,” he says. “I got right up to that $955,000. I remember, I got a picture of it. I’m up to 955, I’m almost to my million, I’m doing my dance. I’m like, ‘I’ve done it, hi-ya!’

“Then it crashes back down.”

“The contracts were maybe five, 10 cents. And I’d buy an assload of them,” he says. “And they would expire worthless every time, because the shorts sat on that stock. No matter what happened, it didn’t matter. They were defending that like it didn’t matter. And I lost my ass on calls, over and over.”

he made one more trade—the biggest of his life. He bought 750 short-term $60 call options. “He was willing to lose it all in order to take that chance to hit those way-out-of-the-money options,” Kortick says. “You only need it once. One play like that and you’re done. That’s everything.”

After all, $25 million is a lot of money for a beach bum to manage. His brother, uncle, and Kortick all sold and took profits. The two accounts McCaskill set up for his children, ages 4 and 6, with their Christmas money netted $1.5 million each.

Guy had been punting his entire life and then hits the lottery while apparently betting his children’s bank accounts, amazing.

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BFARF is the miner play now.

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Yea I lost my ass on HOS, and made it back on PDEX. Still holding PDEX.

Anybody have any other ideas for recovery stonks like movie theaters, cruise lines, airlines and oil cos that are still ~50% or more down from their pre-covid level?

I got my Cinemark, Delta, Royal Caribbean, Carnival and 3 oil cos. I’m not messing with AMC unless it gets back to $2 again.

I hate American Airlines and United. I don’t do companies I hate.

I’m not into malls. I don’t think there will be a euphoric rush back into malls when covid is over.

Casinos rocketed back to all time highs almost immediately. I’m only looking for stonks that are still underwater relative to last Feb.

I would look at high end travel companies. People with money have just been saving like crazy and are desperate for luxury travel. Marriott/Hilton?

Yeah I looked at Marriott - within like 15% of its all time high already.

Hotels and casinos bounced back really quick.

God rich people have so much fucking money right now. There is so much capital chasing any semi-reasonable investment. In my business, people are buying apartment complexes at 25x operating income, absolute insanity.

If you want to go full hardcore RYCEY is at the perfect sink or swim moment, imo.

INN, I may have mentioned earlier to you but it is something to watch if we get a somewhat of a pullback as it will tank quicker than MAR. I wouldn’t buy it now but would consider it if it dropped with the market. It’s your classic high end horse shit that isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

Edit: RYCEY will probably sink, imo.

I didn’t like INN, they seem too close to pre-covid high.

Rolls Royce is weird. Do they mostly do cars of aviation stuff? Either way I’m not sure slightly dumber idiots than me will euphorically rush into the stonk when covid goes away quicker than expected, which is what I’m counting on with the rest.

For the oil cos I’m counting on a summer bump combined with covid going away combined with the Saudis, Russians and whoever else controls this shit gaming supply for a while to make up lost income. My plan is to sell in Aug/Sep.

Just go spend 5 minutes in the Internet Blockchain Trading Cards thread and you will so fully understand this.

I feel like this is the economic cycle as old as time, and we’re in a different stage of it now.

  1. Economy booms, people due to income and investments have more money
  2. With everyone’s investments doing well, they start saving less and investing more because why save earning 0% when my investments are earning 10% or more!
  3. Everyone who was invested in stuff is now $$$$ from their paper gains, which they keep invested in the same vehicles, or transfer to other, often more risky investment vehicles because you know what’s not cool? A million dollars. You know what’s cool? A Billion Dollars.
  4. Due to massive buy pressure and nobody wanting to sell, all investments and asset classes see prices continue to rise.

(We’re in stage 4 right now)

  1. Prices plateau for a while, various dips present “Buying opportunities”
  2. Something changes about the economy or how we value these investments, prices actually begin to fall. People hold on because they can justify it by still having gains against the levels they bought.

(This is the important step that a lot of people miss)

  1. Investments fall to the point where people aren’t as paper rich as they thought. They now have to liquidate assets to cover all the things they bought with their investment gains (car payments, country clubs, nannies, hookers, gambling debts, etc)
  2. People liquidating puts a ton of sellers back in the market. And stuff is sinking like a stone, why does anybody want to buy that shit? So prices continue tanking because all of a sudden all these people who had been maximally invested and leveraged want out.

(basically a bunch of bear market stuff which is just people saving and the true times where high income earners get ahead by virtue of being the ones to have money to spend when assets are cheap)

  1. Rich people get bailed out, spend that bailout money on assets and go back to step 1.
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We hit stage 6 last February though, it took all of a few weeks to skip ahead to step 9.

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REITs, but they may take a long time to recover, if they ever do.

Energy stocks and utilities, but if they are not transitioning to renewables, they are fucked long term. There might be some Texas play with renewable energy suppliers, but probably just gets lost in the overall increase in that sector.

Surprisingly to me, there is not really a beaten-down subset of transport. I would have expected CSX, UNP, XPO, and the like to be worse off than FDX, for example.

This Fidelity analyst (Sign Up | LinkedIn) says the high savings rate will lead to higher earnings growth and P/E ratios (I think that’s what she’s saying). Just started following her. So basically, back to index funds, despite the high valuations. Factoring in your time horizon, I would take a large chunk out of stonks, though. That’s what I did, and I’m slowly putting it back in.

Or we could just be getting started on 3 and 4.

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I’m looking for a chocolate fountain play. But unfortunately Wilton seems to be the industry leader and they’re owned by a private equity firm.

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My first thought was “he should be asking Clovis.”

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https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1qmsgpxhz0lpt/The-20th-Annual-Rich-List-the-Definitive-Ranking-of-What-Hedge-Fund-Managers-Earned-in-2020

Wish I could get paid $1.7 billion to underperform the market

https://twitter.com/GaetenD/status/1363882985154560003/photo/1

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$CCL and $CCIV really plowing ahead this morning. Stonks back to normal.

Someone on wsb did this:

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