Echo this in Australia. It’s horrific here and a reckoning is probably coming (hopefully in a way).
Good post. It felt like there was a lot more caution and fear going into this CPI report - that it was just supposed to be another bloodbath and it looks like it put a fair amount of money on the sidelines.
But unless we quickly revert back to last year’s rates + avoid an increase in layoffs + sustain current earnings expectations, any bounce should be short lived, imo.
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It is definitely a day to day market. Bank earnings and retail sales in the morning before the open, no idea what tomorrow looks like.
Earnings estimates currently for the s&p are anywhere from 215 to 235 for 2023. I lot of the TV financial news punditry say that it needs to come down as low as 200
I’m have no idea what the write number is but say it is 200 and you put a 15 multiple on it, not unreasonable with a 4% ten year, and you get 3000 spy. Thats a lot of room below.
Really bad case scenarios could see estimates coming down just below 200 and a violent sell off that overshioots to a 13 multiple. Ouch, now we are looking at 2600. But who knows. Q4 earnings and guidance probably going to worse then Q3. But again that’s just a guess.
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Same. Except I don’t laugh at them.
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With the ticker YALL
That’s amazing.
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Only 65bps for a scam equity mutual fund is amazing. Jack Bogle is the Stanislav Petrov of the investing world.
That bad earnings scenario is kinda where I think we are going and I wonder if the overshoot is going to be more violent on the multiple side for at least a short period, but thats kinda how Ive been looking at it (think the terminal growth rate should be lower than historical too). Kind of excited for a big sell off as would actually be a potential buying opportunity rather than trading/greater fool/Fed forcing a buy opportunity for the first time in ages.
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Kroger and Albertsons with the rare merger announcement resulting in both companies’ stock tanking.
Whoopsie. I’m sure all the senior execs involved will return their bonuses because they let down the shareholders.
Albertsons had a big spike when rumors of the deal started leaking though. I think they’re net positive on the deal.
Big 2007 vibes in this story. What could go wrong, it’s not like housing prices ever go down!
we’ve been saying this for years, but we really need to start grifting the magarubes.
If the market loses 1-2% every day for eternity, it can never technically reach 0, right?
If there were stonks in ancient Greece, maybe Zeno would have used markets instead of tortoises.
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sorry if ponied but god damn this shit goes even farther than we realize
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Remember that gravity-powered truck company?
Market cap is still >1 billion but I reckon that will soon change.
Literally nothing in this article suggests that Wahlberg’s move to Nevada has anything to do with taxes. #MediaBias is real!
“To be able to give my kids a better life and follow and pursue their dreams, whether it be my daughter as an equestrian, my son as a basketball player, my younger son as a golfer, this made a lot more sense for us,” he said of his family’s move.
if taxes were lower, he could have built a golf course/horse stable in LA
#calexit #walk away