The TSLA Market / Economy

Meh we’re down as well and have put over $100k in various accounts so far this year. When it eventually turns (fingers crossed) the balances explode upward. At least every other time I’ve ridden out a downturn they have!

+1 the last thing you want to do right now is lock in your losses

2 Likes

Well if you say so!

He’s not wrong. IMO the best thing do is simulate what would’ve happened to your particular asset allocation in '08 and adjust if that makes you uncomfortable. Always plan for the worst case scenario.

Yeah, its always been a terrible play to sell long term positions 25% down from ATHs. Just hold em. But just keep in the back of your head that if we do mimic an 08 crash, the Dow jones goes to 17,000. We are still in the clouds.

It looks like the market in the next couple days at least is either going to go up or down a substantial amount and I have no fucking idea which way that is.

Yeah my personal portfolio is down quite a bit this year despite putting money into it. Not helping that my company’s stock is down 90% so I’m not exactly adding to my portfolio when my RSUs vest every quarter

Hold em definitely better historically. Two big caveats are that history is still a pretty small sample size and there is a huge implicit assumption that the investor wont sell down 50 percent or down 75 percent later.

You’ve just got to think of it as… you’ve been buying shares you will sell at some unknown price during your retirement and they’ve now gone on sale, rather than you’ve lost money. Now is the time to think about buying more not less, because each dollar you put in will buy more that you can sell later.

1 Like

I’d push back on they are on sale.

2 Likes

This is so good

https://twitter.com/profsautter/status/1578394978002378755?s=46&t=qf0PEMk7sNld5GwileYizg

On the one hand, stocks are marked down from where they are a year ago. It could be they are not below intrinsic value, that is true.

My point was not actually about whether stocks are on sale, (efficient market hypothesis says that is never true), it was more about providing a good psychological mindset for a passive investor to have during down years, which I will stand by.

1 Like

Yeah I mean I’m as bearish as anyone but I’m still funding my 401k so I’d agree. I just think people should be eyes wide open right now, shit in the markets is very dangerous right now.

Once it gets in your 401k, what exactly is it being invested in? VTI or similar? Something else?

True, but I held through 2000 (was easy I didn’t have a lot), 2008, and Covid crash (actually bought hard into that dip) so I think I have the stomach for it. Ultimately everybody has to do what is right for them.

This one is easier for me because I changed my AA to be more conservative when the market recovered after the Covid crash because we are in reach of our retirement numbers now, but we are in this position because we rode out and bought into the other crashes. (And we are still down a good chunk as it is this time.)

Id have to check exactly what it is in, but I skew it very international because the rest of my assets skew very domestic.

Just wanted to make sure it was some kind of STONKS.

7 Likes

CPI comes out on the 13th, last month we missed by .1% and market tanked. this should be a fun week

i’m not sure that the inflation adjusted interest rate is worth having to visit Treasury Direct’s 1994 website.

So apparently, the bonds that I bought in my account for my wife are “gift securities” in my “gift box”?

And the one for my daughter is “Linked Accounts”?

This is incredibly confusing. I really have no faith they aren’t going to just completely lose my info.

Was I supposed to use separate accounts for my spouse?