AMC having a normal one
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I haven’t kept close track of this, but is it possible that the stock is just going ex-dividend from that APE share it’s distributing?
That must be part of it, but seems like there is some bad news for the industry in general that is pushing prices further down
The APE shares appear to have listed today and I’m seeing a market cap over $9B on those with the regular shares at $5.8B, down from $9.3B. So combining the two, it’s up significantly today (~59%) because obviously launching the APE shares has drastically improved the quality of the business!
I wonder if post-pandemic America has gotten accustomed to streaming new releases instead of going out to the theater.
Most of the analysis I’ve seen portrays it as a sort of death spiral between supply and demand. Except for a few blockbusters (Top Gun Maverick, some of the Marvel/DC stuff, some kids films) people will wait and catch it at home (if at all). Because of this, the studios are cutting back on the amount of films they are releasing, so theaters don’t have a pipeline of new product to keep drawing folks in. One of the takeaways of the Regal bankruptcy chatter is that they seem to think Wakanda Forever will do big numbers, but they are worried about cashflow for the next month or two until they get that next big bump. And longer term, just hoping to constantly tread water while waiting for the MCU hit isn’t a great business model.
There has to be a limit to the number of complete dogshit comic book movies they can jam down the collective audience’s throats. These movies are fucking awful.
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Movies arent dying. These businesses just had full debt loads pre COVID (and Cineworld has other issues like the failed merger judgement), had to take out more debt to fund the COVID years, and now are returning to a business that probably gets back to like 85% of what it was. Some bankruptcies and capacity shrinkage and business will be fine again like when they had the last big shakeout around 2000 with the stadium seating/overcapacity issues.
Actually feel better that streaming isnt going to end movie theatres than I did three years ago, but debt loads just need to come in line with a slightly smaller business.
As pointed out above, these theatres should have pretty decent negotiating positon in a bankruptcy because not great alternative uses for a lot of the current real estate footprint.
I’ve been thinking they’ll run out of ideas for comic book movies for decade now and yet here we are. There are just decades of stories and characters to mine through and a dedicated audience of chumps like me who will watch whatever nonsense they serve me up.
We will have a decade of Superheroes But They’re Actually derivative garbage for a decade, then everyone will be ready for another 20 years of Superheroes But They’re Actually Good movies again.
The most confusing trend to me is how Marvel has been releasing shows with objectively terrible CGI. That’s an affront to their fan base and if they can get away with that they can get away with anything.
I think a lot of theaters will try to hang on by going pricier in exchange for a better or unique experience. In the last few years, places near me have added things like reserved seating, better food, simulcasts of special events like concerts/ufc/NFL games. There’s also stuff like 4dx that seems like a gimmick to me, but I have no idea if it is economically viable. I’ve also noticed that the “arthouse” theater now also shows Marvel stuff and the “blockbuster megaplex” also shows small indie stuff so maybe they survive by broadening market.
Ultimately though, some of those theaters will close down and my guess is that space in quickly growing areas will get turned into something simply because someone will find use for the space even if you have to convert it, and other places (like the aging theater that used to anchor the half empty suburban strip mall is going to sit empty for a while.)
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Theaters have been shutting down for a while. In the 15 years that I’ve lived in New York, at least 5 theaters have closed in the Upper East Side alone. I think it would be interesting to see a history of movie theaters in the city. Before the days of multiplexes, I believe there were a lot more small theaters.
There’s some sort of potential at an intersection of live events, streaming, and eSports.
Imagine Amazon buying them and streaming prime time NFL games into theatres, with a tailgate atmosphere in the lobbies with arcade games and cornhole and $8 beers.
Or streaming stuff like The Match and people in the theaters can hop in a booth and ask a question on camera that streams into the broadcast and gets answered by a player.
Someone will buy them for pennies on the dollar and try to innovate something.
What I’ve heard is that Marvel/Star Wars have been generating so much demand for CGI that the industry can’t meet production and everyone is cutting corners. I don’t usually notice or care much about these things but lately some of the effects in shows these days are distractedly bad. You can see it in the Prey movie, all the CGI animals look terrible but the practical effects look great.
Most multiplex suburban theaters are built cheaply with no expectation of a long lifespan, just like everything else out there in next to the Home Depot and around the corner from the Chick-fil-A . They’ll sit empty until somebody decides to knock it down and build another cheap piece of disposable real estate.
Yep. It’s not like theater disruption is a new thing. The death of drive ins was a disrupting event. The rise of the multiplex was a disrupting event. Stadium and recliner seating disrupted theaters that didn’t have those features. And going further back in time some of the cool one and two screen theaters were converted from live action theaters where they used to hold plays, Operas and other concerts. And some of those places sat vacant for years before they were converted. So some places that close now might get completely transformed into a different use, or they may just become venues for different types of live events, like @anon38180840 outlined.
can’t see anyone partnered with the NFL to do this cause that would compete with the stadium experience-- some places already do something like this, don’t see amazon though not worth it just for a handful of sporting events.
theatres are similar to college lecture halls if one is nearby to use as well
The weird thing is it’s all ILM. They were the best for decades!
For the tailgate and theatre atmosphere you don’t even need to partner, although obviously it helps. I think Amazon and Apple make the most sense, since they seem to be in a better financial position than other streaming companies. Amazon has the fallback that if it fails they can more easily repurpose the buildings (warehouses, Whole Foods, etc).
You shut your filthy mouth.
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