Month over month inflation was zero. That’s pretty good.
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Not for my Ibonds!
Inflation clearly heading in right direction but of course media only gonna focus on that 8.5 number which was completely expected
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Gas will only drop so far, and if gas is dropping fast and inflation is flat, inflation in everything else is probably fairly significant.
Like it’s progress, but I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.
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And this is why I haven’t quit my day job…
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You might have a future as a talking head on CNBC.
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Well, I wasted an hour reading the offer I guess. My brokerage won’t let me accept. They say it violates the sanctions. They then read the sanctions to me, which explicitly say I’m allowed to divest, and they can’t explain why they won’t allow me to divest.
I feel like the brokerages are just refusing to touch anything even loosely Russian.
makes sense to me they wouldn’t touch any of that right now regardless of rules
some banks don’t let you deposit on legal gambling sites just how it goes
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Alright, need the assistance of the forum and I think @spidercrab might be best equipped to help on this one.
So I’ve been racking my brain trying to find a way to hedge the currency risk on an investment in an ADR for a Mexican company that’s going private. The buyout will be in pesos, then convert over at the exchange rate at the time of purchase for the ADRs. I signed up with a new broker to get access to the Mexican Stock Exchange to get access to an ETF that tracks the peso against the dollar to buy puts to hedge against the peso weakening against the dollar. There are no options chains on it.
So I’m racking my brain, and I realize, duh, this is simple. Buy half in the American ADR and half in the Mexican stock, then regardless of which way the currency moves, I should come out even… right? Am I missing something? I hate currency exchange rates, it’s my Achilles heel.
I feel that the deal is 99.99% to go through, and the stock might even go up if it falls through, the offer was taking advantage of the stock being way undervalued. So I think the only risk is like act of God type stuff, some sort of massive earthquake or something in the next 6-10 months that damages the business. They have a weird dividend structure and pay out in May and July, so I’m guessing they’ll want to close before May so they don’t have to pay another dividend. The yield is around 2% annual, so around 1% for each one.
I’m considering putting a massive portion of my net worth into it, as it seems like a really low-risk way to avoid losing pace to inflation.
I don’t see how buying half ADR and half Mexican stock hedges anything. In either case you are ultimately getting a future payout for a known/certain number of Mexican pesos based on how many shares (ADR or Mexican) you own. If the peso performs poorly then you won’t be happy with the amount of dollars that those pesos convert to.
I believe you’d want to engage in a futures contract to sell the Mexican pesos you are due to receive for a set amount of USD which you could then close out at the time of the deal closing.
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Shit, right. Either way I’m getting pesos, then converting back. So either way I’m long the peso against the dollar.
So to trade the futures, I’m going to have to open a separate account somewhere, right?
I have never tried to do anything like that, so I can’t help you there. I assume Interactive Brokers would be the place to do it.
You may also be able to do it more easily with an options contract where you are buying a put at around the strike price. If it goes down your put becomes more valuable, if it goes up then your put is worthless and you are out your premium.
You’re not going to like my advice, but I’d sell the ADR right now under the assumption that the market is really good at pricing semi-arbitrage situations like what you describe.
This seems insane.
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Echoing this. Don’t do this.
Yeah I just signed up with Interactive Brokers. I don’t see the CME peso/dollar futures on IBKR though.
An options contract on the futures, you mean?
Devil’s advocating. Do it.
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There’s (almost) no way to complete this sentence without earning a 
Especially if you don’t understand every aspect of the investment from top to bottom.
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This. Also, if you are playing to “beat inflation,” you are doing it wrong. Inflation is very high right now, but it is coming down, and it is probably really difficult to beat inflation. However, the game is the same as it has always been, which is to get the best return you can, safely, relative ot your risk tolerance. If you are making desperation moves because you hate the fact that your money is shrinking relative to inflation you are doing it wrong. Or, to put it another way, if you weren’t losing to inflation but this investment was such a great idea even in normal times, then why does beating inflation have anything to do with it? Wouldn’t you always make the investment?
In conclusion: Don’t do this.
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Putting a large amount of your net worth in any 1 thing is bonkers.
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