I’ve beaten this drum a number of times and you probably know this, but the marshmallow test was a shitty study that has since been largely debunked.
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I would definitely eat the marshmellow right away because I wouldn’t want to have to eat two disgusting marshmellows.
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Marshmallows WOAT
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in reality the marshmellow test is like, needing new shoes and choosing the $40 pair that is completely trashed in 3 months, vs the $125 pair that will easily last a year+ - yea, one’s clearly a better investment, but it’s not really them choosing what’s cheapest and easiest, it’s just that the $125 shoe would require either credit they dont have or skipping other vital stuff like diapers or dentistry.
is there actually a difference in longevity between a $65 pair of shoes (sketchers/new balance) and a $125 Nike?
I haven’t done any sort of scientific analysis but my HOKA shoes last a ton longer than typical 60 buck shoes
yes - low quality shoes deteriorate really fast. my job required walking 6-10 miles a day on a rough surface and the $30 pairs would barely last a few months. I started dating a girl that taught me that investing a little more would be worth it in the long run, and my first pair of nikes lasted over a year. that example wasn’t really made up other than the precise numbers.
even if the soles dont go on cheap ones, crap like the rubber on the outside of the shoe will just start falling off or the insides will wear out super quick as well.
shoes may actually be the best example I can think of right away. even the adhesives they use and crap are faaaaar inferior on the cheaper ones.
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you can find crappy expensive shoes or well made cheap ones. On average more expensive shoes last longer, have to realize the brand and do research which may not be worth the $60 it saves you
In recent years, I have been getting Sketchers/New Balance (wide feet) in the range of $65-75 and they seem to last pretty long.
I’ve killed a couple pairs of Sketchers pretty quick, like under 6 months. Clarks last forever and are reasonably priced. I’ve had good luck with Wolverines for work boots, and I abuse the crap out of my work boots.
So this is quite interesting now @spidercrab. I’ve read the offering, and it reads partially like a salesman trying to get me to hand over my shares and partially like a mobster threatening me if I don’t. After pointing out that he’ll own 73% of the company afterwards, they note in the offering. “Mr. Solonin may have interests that are not consistent with stockholders who choose not to tender their Shares and Shares represented by ADSs.”
Now, this thing halted on the NASDAQ at $5.67, and it’s currently trading on the MOEX at the US equivalent of $5.25. But that’s the official exchange rate from the Kremlin, which is bullshit. On the black market, the USD is worth twice what they claim it is against the RUB. So that’s really $2.625, which makes his offer of $2.50 seem pretty fair.
However, off their earnings report through 3/31 (so a full month after the NASDAQ halt and 5 weeks or so after the invasion), adjusting for the current black market exchange rate between RUB/USD, the shares are worth a tangible book of $4.48 and they earned $0.30 per share. Their earnings in RUB were up year over year, which makes it look like they may be fine going forward in terms of remaining profitable, but their profit in dollars will obviously be way lower. Since that conversion uses the current black market exchange rate, the only way the tangible book is worth less is if they lost money last quarter, which they may have, but I doubt it - unless most of their operational expenses are in either dollars or Euros, which I don’t think they are.
So if this were a random company with that balance sheet that was actually trading, I’d buy them at $5.37 or lower, and sell no lower than $8.05. But, there’s a chance trading never resumes on the NASDAQ, they’ve halted dividends which gives Solonin more leverage, he’s already got over 60% of the shareholder votes under his control, and at least I get something. There also may not be a lot of appetite among western investors for the shares even if the war ends and trading resumes, however given their dividend payout ratio in the past, I’d expect the quarterly dividend to be around $0.10 based off the latest quarter of earnings.
There’s also the issue of not knowing how much of their assets are in other currencies or is real estate in other countries. So I marked down their balance sheet at the black market rate for rubles to USD, but if they own property in Cyprus where their offices are, that didn’t depreciate. If they have a decent amount of their cash/equivalents in dollars or euros, those aren’t getting smoked like the ruble.
But, there’s no way to know for sure. All I do know is that Solonin is getting a steal on this, for sure. But, he has all the leverage and something beats nothing.
I think my current plan is to tender the shares to accept the offer, and if they release a quarterly report before the deadline to reverse my decision and it’s a good quarter, I might reconsider.
Given the hedge I put on, I’m going to end up with a win if I get anything over $1.72 per share. So this offer ends up giving me about a 10.7% return in a worst case scenario, against the S&P’s -8.34% over that stretch.
Even getting ripped off, that’s a pretty damn good outcome the way things went.
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Inflation, at 8.5%, was “less than expected”, so we stonk!
Are the inflation numbers released already? Edit: guess so.
This feels like one of those days where futures and the open Stonk Stonk and then by the close we have either a modest gain or slightly red.
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Ermagerd 8.5%. tapering time!
ALL HAIL THE MIGHTY FED ALL BEHOLD THE GREAT AND GLORIOUS MARKET DEATH TO UNBELIEVERS!!!
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i think im down like 2% this year after buying the dip in June.
I’m still down ~10 percent despite buying into the dip on multiple occasions, and this includes new money too. You must have hit the timing just right? (Down a little less if today’s gains hold. I was 10 percent a week ago.)
yeah got lucky with timing and also got a big raise last year so just had a bunch of money sitting around doing nothing, i was only about 65-70% invested in stocks to start which probably wasnt great, now im at 100% which is probably recommended since im only 32 but psychologically i dont think im cut out to stay 100%, would love to transfer 10-15% into cds/bonds once those become viable again.
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