The TSLA Market / Economy

So if I’m understanding it correctly, this new bill puts a 1% tax on buybacks which raises like $74B a year. Seems mostly inconsequential because it’s only 1%. The 15% corporate minimum tax on book profits seems like a much bigger deal, but only applies to companies making over $1B a year. That looks to be 20-25% of the NYSE and NASDAQ. Did they really just manage to pass a tax on only the largest corporations?

Anyway, if so, doesn’t that give a bit of an advantage to small caps? Or will the big companies just be able to do some creative accounting until it gets repealed?

So I think what’s happening is these costs are being passed on to consumers in areas that are unavoidable expenses - food, gas, etc. But I think retail is taking a hit due to consumers having less money to spend - especially in the lower to middle class. So a grocery store probably does fine, gas stations do fine, but retail does poorly.

I mean we have some people here who are nonsupervisory who have gotten huge raises who make more than enough money to not sweat rising food costs. I’d need to see numbers on like manual labor jobs, retail jobs, etc.

I’m sort of reading the tea leaves on what Wal Mart said the other day about groceries doing well and retail struggling and trying to explain it and piece it together and extrapolate it.

That gap at the end is bad for the economy and some businesses, right? I think a lot of companies are basically sacrificing current profits to try to hold wages in their industry down. Specifically in travel/hospitality. Which partially explains this:

They can’t or won’t pay enough to beat out, say, retailers, for that. Another way to think about what I’m discussing with @spidercrab is that it could cause a reshuffling between sectors.

The Weekend Wall Street index has so far yawned. (Basically been flat all weekend and remains flat now)

I’m not saying it’s true of all of them, but I feel fairly confident that some of these companies are just being pilfered by the people running them. DoorDash spending heaps on R&D? Come on man, what in the actual fuck is that?

There’s going to be a documentary someday about how the early founders and the CEOs and upper management and one or two really clever middle-upper management guys managed to liberate huge bags of money from the company into other companies they owned/invested in. Like rats taking golden parachutes off a sinking ship.

with bad cloud architecture, costs can DEFINITELY increase with scale

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My understanding is that Uber also subsidizes routes and cities that arent viable on their own.

So. Yeah. They make money on the airport run in a big city, but ensuring that theres an uber available in 5 minutes for some huge proportion of the world’s cities cant be easy.

I haven’t seen any analysis, but my guess is that this more or less impacts only a handful of companies and expanding it below $1B wouldn’t matter much.

I can see where when a firm need to source matierals and establish supply chains how economies if scale can reduce cost over time. But a business like uber it’s unclear how volume would or should reduce cost. Doordash is more or less the same business so the same shod apply.

Really even Amazon minus AWS is barely profitable and its been growing for two decades. Same and next day delerivery are a nice convince but ost of what I order on Amazon I don’t need right away I’m fine with waiting whatever the postal service norm is. It’s just a gimmick to get people to use the service instead of going to the local Walmart or Target or whatever.

None of that is sustainable - but it’s kind of a disguised ticket in to snatching a service that isn’t currently in use. The company literally has its eyes on buying autonomous start ups and developing legit delivery robots for a world not yet perceived but very damn well likely to become. Again, they are positioned to take these chances and if it doesn’t pan out they can go back to charging small fees since folks don’t know any better anyway. They’re a very forward looking biz.

I’m not a huge DD fan but I think they got more ways to morph into something successful than is given credit for, imo.

won’t be that much regarding retail, people aren’t cutting back really. Gas prices are also coming back down.

Is this true? I don’t have the wherewithal to check.

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1556369839203172353

it seems like as long as unemployment is super low you are going to have pressure to increase wages and the risk that inflation becomes entrenched. arbitrary, but i remember getting 6% on my money market account in 2006. current interest rates still seem very low. i think the Fed still has lots of raising to do.

Yeah, this is often lost on people because the Fed interest rate decisions are always framed as adding X basis points. OMG 75 BASIS POINT HIKE! Yes, that’s a big increase at one time but people just got used to the rate being practically zero after the 2008 financial crisis. Now any interest rate above 2%, i.e. a rate higher than it was for the entire second half of the 20th century, is perceived as Hawkish Bank Policy.

Probably. They aren’t selling cars yet, so that’s a silly tweet. They’re a start-up whose first vehicle (the Fisker Ocean) is expected to hit the market later this year, for which they’re on schedule afaik. Fisker only designs the cars and outsources the manufacturing; the Ocean will be made by Magna International.

Not saying one should buy FSR right now, because there’s a high risk of share dilution. However, it’s likely that the stonk will jump when the car is officially about to hit the road. Last year, it regularly pumped irrationally on mild/no news.

I’m also watching PSNY–Polestar, a division of Volvo, actually selling tens of thousands of good EV’s per year already. But I need the price to drop 33% before I consider buying.

Apparently the $7,500 tax credit is now instantly applied if you buy at a dealership but you have to wait until you file the next year’s taxes if you buy direct to consumer. LOL car dealers always win.

What is the income phaseout for the $7500 rebate? I’d like to buy in the next few years but am concerned I won’t qualify.

$150k individual, $300k married

Sold BVNRY at $16.84. +66.46%

Too many variables I can’t account for anymore. They can’t get any more doses produced until next year, at which point in time this could be under control or they could have competition. Tpoxx, which is the treatment from SIGA, seems to work pretty well and that could hamper vaccine demand.

Is it completely phased out at those limits, or does it just start? If the idea here is to incentivize purchasing EV’s, why the hell would they have any phaseouts?

Probably because once you’re making > $300k (assuming AGI or MAGI, which is more like making > $350k to $400k) then $7500 is probably unlikely to make a difference in your buying decision.

Personally I would rather put the restriction on the price of the car though. People who can afford luxury cars shouldn’t be getting a tax break for them imo. Cap the tax break on electric vehicles that cost less than $40k or $50k or something like that. Incentivize manufacturers to make EV for the masses.