I have no idea what you guys are talking about
Surf is asking if the Fed rate has more impact on the markets than the economy being bad, I’m suggesting that the market is likely in trouble regardless.
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eh, retail like that all overloaded inventories and everyone knows it, so it’s not new, so it’s slight but some of their own doing which might lead to some nice sales in a few months.
also if covid/monkeypox/whatever starts hitting very hard again…
btw, raising rates are a bigger threat to stonks cause making money lower risk > making money with more risk
so that’s why stonks are fine right now, ie, employment is still really good, Some areas like tech getting drecked because lol at paying that much for that in this environment but others are okay. Just weird. Gas has come down a bit, food didn’t really go up in price that much (the stuff you shouldn’t be eating did though). commodities all went down or came back down. shrugs
some of those evaluations were total LOL and badly needed a correction at any rate
still trying to figure out how arkk is up vs a month ago despite most of their companies only bad news just sell everything into tesla and hope I guess she should do
There was a lot of discussion on whether the Feds should act aggressively on raising rates or to allow inflation to correct itself as it was clear that a good part of the higher prices was due to govt stim and pent up demand - much of it not being a result of higher wages or a booming economy but instead of temporary controlled reasons.
Walmart is signifying that purchasing power has dramatically diminished which could give credence to the opinion that shoppers have curbed their spending as a result of inflation thus adjusting itself. But now we also get higher rates which will could lead to more businesses crashing, folks defaulting on their debt and good job numbers going bad. Maybe we can just lower rates again!
John Oliver with a nice takedown of Cramer (16:28-18:08)
yes changes in rates should have a bigger impact on stock prices than changes in earnings if we are talking about ‘normal’ changes
I think this depends somewhat on the absolute level of interest rates. An increase in interest rates from 1% to 3% should have more impact than an increase from 11% to 13% (hypothetically).
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Yes and we are currently much closer to 1% than we are to 10%.
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Right.
If there’s a weirder recession than this, I can’t think of it offhand, nobody is cutting back spending, outside of tech and some companies that were burning $ hand over fist, there aren’t layoffs
The 2020s were always going to be weird because of the demographics of boomers retiring in waves this decade. I think it’s actually pretty hard to sort out which part of the current economic situation is a big surprise resulting from the unanticipated impact of the pandemic, and how much is the impact of massive shifting demographics. We’ve know for decades that the mass boomer retirement would be an economic game changer but no one really knew what would happen. It’s entirely possible that in an aging workforce with serious anti immigration policy and culture, this high employment low growth scenario is inevitable.
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400 SPY. We back.
Stonks
Cash might be ok if inflation is relatively controlled by the time the gig is up. Or bonds even, if they then need to start rolling back rates. Some of each (and a little crypto) then hold your ass and hope for the best is my plan.
what cards are crumbling though outside of the stuff that rocketed too far in the first place?
consumers are still spending just like they used to