The economy is too good that the Fed no longer needs to pump massive amounts of dollars into the economy inflating assets, so that’s bad news for STONKS
I like how a lot of financial advisors share the idea that you should plan for or accept that your portfolio can accrue a "maximum draw down of 50% before shooting back up again - like 2008 signified that we can match but won’t ever extend pass those loses. I literally heard … “If you have 3 million in your portfolio, you need to realize that you could lose up to 1.5 million before regaining those losses.”
Is that wrong? And why?
And you can lose more than half.
I’m gonna return an entire remodel of my house if they do this. Lmao
We had a good one at the beginning of the pandemic from Newegg. My partner ordered a new monitor because we started WFH and it arrived a few days later. She got it setup, used it for a day, and submitted an expense report since her company was offering reimbursement. Well a few days of usage in and she notices a couple dead pixels and wants to return it. Newegg says “you can just keep it, we’ll just return the funds.” Then the next paycheck hits and she got reimbursed by the company as well.
So, bigly compensated with a free 32" monitor and ~$400. She ended up ordering a new monitor at some point and gave the other away since pixels are important for her work.
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Is it that bad of an assumption? If you have a 5-10+ year outlook you’re on very solid footing with that assumption.
Sure there could be a black swan thing that could fuck everything over but everything is fucked anyways in that scenario.
I think this is Customer Service 101. If a “normal” customer is mad at you about an order, chances are that you did something wrong, so make it up to them by comping whatever they’re mad about. Scammers are easy to spot. Normal customers could exploit you by pretending to get a broken monitor every three years or something, but normal people don’t do that. Asking the customer to return a busted monitor so you can verify it’s busted before you scrap it burns both money and customer goodwill to guard against a risk that doesn’t even really exist.
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There are plenty of white swans that might fuck everything over too.
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Right. And it makes perfect sense in a time of record profits and a declining dollar that stocks would be worth less against the dollar. Wait what?
I can’t imagine any way that a policy of “email us and complain and we’ll refund whatever you bought and you don’t even have to return it” could ever backfire.
There is no guarantee the future economy is based on what has happened. That’s why that advice isn’t great. Climate change, global pandemics, war, etc are all non-zero events that could mean things never get back to as good as it is today in our lifetimes.
Of course the most likely event is that STONKS ONLY GO UP so there’s that.
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I read about the craziest case where a guy got busted by the DOJ for scamming Amazon by ordering something expensive (lots of high end AV stuff for example), then claiming he incorrectly got the wrong product (a much cheaper version of the same thing which he purchased himself) and then sending back the cheaper product, getting a refund, and keeping the more expensive product.
The crazy part was that the dude didn’t need the money. He was basically a kleptomaniac.
EDIT: found it
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In college I returned a broken boombox to Best Buy. They sent me out in the store to get the replacement and I “accidentally” grabbed the much fancier model. No one noticed or said anything.
I almost shit my pants when the guy at the door asked to see my receipt. I thought I was busted for sure. But he was mostly just blindly checking every receipt and marking them off. The brand name matched, which was good enough for him.
I still was paranoid as hell until we got out of the parking lot. I’m not cut out for a life of crime.
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Sure but in those things ain’t nothing going to save you so fuck it might as well stonk?
My wife went from a MacBook Air to a pro at Costco in a similar way. She didn’t notice until I pointed it out when she said it was bigger
I don’t really disagree but i suppose there is a middle ground Japan style also where we limp along but don’t reach new ath either for quite a while.
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That’s a good story you should tell people in your life who don’t believe white privilege is real. Shoplifting in plain sight!
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Depends on how much saving you need, and from what. Like if it’s mushroom clouds over Manhattan, yeah fuck it, nothing matters. But there are very plausible scenarios of slow, steady decline where putting your money somewhere other than an index fund could play out much better. Like maybe just paying off your debt and learning to live simply instead of relying on the house of cards staying up to eat and keep a roof over your head.
It is kinda sad when even lefties look at Japan as a bad thing. Eternal exponential growth is impossible, and Japan-style stagnation worldwide is the best of all end games. We can and should stop consuming exponentially more of this finite earth. We need to find an equilibrium where we produce about the same year in and year out, and we and are happy with that. Like, yes, I’m invested in the exponential growth market because I hate the game, not the player, but we should establish that a company making the same sort of stable profit year over year over year over year is a good thing.
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