I dont really think it gets that bad, but in the range of outcomes and about where I’d be excited to get in right now. We are about to see shit we havent seen in like a generation with a market structured around record high multiples and zero rates and this time the government cavalry aint coming. The negative feedback loops have the potential to be so goddamn bad.
I’ve always tried to be heavy in international index funds for basically this moment. I figure my house is plenty of exposure to the US economic situation already. Might as well diversify the stonks some.
For people with cash, FXE is basically like holding euros instead of dollars (except might be different for tax implications, not sure).
pay in 4 interest-free payments
Split your purchase of $30.00 into 4 with no impact on credit score and no late fees.
saw this on the internet looking at a product and went, yeah we’re gonna be in a recession
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and just think not that long ago in human history, nobody had money and they all had 7+ kids
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Idk man, seems like all the macro problems we got everybody else has worse. Supply chain disruption, inflationary demographic pressure, energy supply disruption, food supply disruption, … I’m starting to think international exposure is more of a liability than a hedge atm.
guess you have to avoid europe atm, if they’re serious about the russia energy ban, that is going to skyrocket, replacing it gotta come from somewhere. and I don’t know where that is offhand.
I’ve seen this now in several places (it’s usually going through Affirm, right?), and I definitely don’t understand the economics. Affirm isn’t doing this for free, and the consumer isn’t paying anything extra. So the original merchant is just choosing to give discounts that no one was asking for?
Like, if someone says “Hey, that thing you were going to buy? You can randomly just pay less for it via interest free payments”, I’m definitely going to consider doing it. Not for a random $30 purchase, but when I bought my Peloton Tread I figured I’d just pay for it outright, but snap took that deal when offered.
I don’t think it’s an indication that we’re in for a recession, because I don’t believe that it’s in response to a bunch of consumers asking to have their $30 purchase financed. But I also don’t understand why it exists, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Also saw that a few days ago making a $15 online restaurant order
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Skimming through this it seems like they mainly try to make money through
(1) merchant fees [Pitch probably relies on convincing the merchant that this product will lead to more sales. Also, maybe there is something in the fee schedule and time it takes the merchant to get paid on the sale that makes it more attractive than traditional credit cards]
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Offering other credit products to customers who use pay over time. So, I guess you could argue that the costs of not charging interest on the pay over time product is an investment in finding customers who might be good marketing candidates for things that do charge interest.
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Packaging the loans, selling them off and then getting fees to continue to act as the servicer. If you’re doing lots of small credit transactions, you could probably build some interesting securities and off load a lot of your risk.
Business model doesn’t seem insane to me, but you probably need (a) scale (b) a relatively low interest rate environment [giving out interest free loans doesn’t look great if the Fed keeps cranking up rates at every meeting] (c) a decent amount of conversions to your other products.
Really looking forward to seeing how much BRK, AAPL, and other stonks that Buffett has been buying this quarter.
TSLA down another 7.5%. Glorious
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Well, Musk has no choice now.
He has to go full deplorable because the libs are being mean to him and his stock price.
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I mean… at what point is it a buy? I kinda like the company tbh. All I know is that seemingly half the doctors and nurses by teslas around me. The rest buy pickup trucks.
I might consider it if the stock drops 90% from here.
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I hope they make it. Had 2 good experiences so far with them and I think I got decent cars at a decent price both times. But I’m no mechanic so who knows.
Yeah but I have a lot more faith in most of Europe’s leaders. At least when the batshit crazies get back in power and stay there for good.
They’d still be bigger than GM!
I think somewhere in the $300-400 range it gets interesting. Their earnings estimate is in the $10-12 range for the year, and they’re only expected to sell around a million cars. I think it’s very reasonable to expect them to double that within the next several years, which would add somewhere in the neighborhood of $14 per share to their profits.
I don’t know much about the battery business or growth potential there, but even ignoring it if $25/share in annual earnings was the eventual expectation, an eventual valuation around $350-400 would seem pretty reasonable. Plus whatever the battery growth adds. Plus whatever value the data they’re getting from the cars and batteries adds.
Of course then the big question becomes what is the likelihood of reaching their potential? I like them a lot more if Elon gets ousted than if he’s still shittweeting while running the company.
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I am less confident than you, but still, I’m not sure it makes much difference. Monetary policy in both places is reasonably independent of political influence. Not sure to what extent somewhat better governance translates into increased returns for publicly traded businesses. I’m not convinced there’s enough difference to make up for the obvious economic weaknesses of Europe in the medium term.
You’re getting a time-based discount. What if they had instead just offered to slash the price by X% up front that works out to the same number? Trick question: It doesn’t matter to you because you aren’t the target market for the multiple payment tactic.
Master jpowell back to his mandate, saving equities!