And one more, EBS at $35.52. They make the old smallpox vaccine (ACAM200) and they recently bought the rights to a treatment for smallpox called Tembexa. Both should be useful for monkeypox.
SIGA’s tangible book is $2.30, TTM earnings $0.90, and good earnings growth. So that was a borderline value buy before considering the monkeypox play. Feels like a great spot.
EBS’s tangible book is $15.08, I would expect it to go to a minimum of $18.60 after this year due to their Tembexa sales that are all but guaranteed (1.7 million doses seems like a lock based on past government orders, could be a ton more). They’re profitable at $2.95 in earnings in the TTM, so I’m getting them for less than 2x their real tangible book and at an earnings multiple of 12.
Just feels like huge asymmetric bets. I could have gone with options to leverage more upside, but given the solid financials underlying all three of these companies, holding the equity feels safer and smarter.
okay okay I need the price to go up. I cant take this anymore. every day I am checking the price and its dipping. every day i check price and bad price. I cant take this anymore. I have over invested, by a lot. It is what it is. but I need price to go up. can biden do something?
I was looking at a few tech stonks and didn’t realize Shopify blew up so much. It has taken quite the haircut this year and is now trading under pre-pandemic levels.
He wants a crash. I don’t want to put words in his mount so maybe he’ll come around and explain why. I think I know, but I don’t want to get the details wrong.
I would probably do alright on a crash, but I’m kind of indifferent at this point. I suspect that in the long run I’d do better in my retirement accounts in a crash scenario, but it would cause quite a bit of short term real life pain. If it just continues to trade sideways and money cycles into value, I do well anyway and maybe less real world pain.
That said, I think that we have a ways down to go.
I’m also at least theoretically in the crash ASAP is better than crash later camp. It’s still hard to actually experience it. I don’t have anything in the market that will affect my day to day life, but it’s still unpleasant.
I think it was @Riverman who said something like “I like having money more than I like spending money”. That’s exactly me. And with a crash, I’ve got less. Feels bad, man.
Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator for stocks. It has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001 he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview that “it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”
‘Market Cap to GDP’ is commonly defined as a measure of the total value of all publicly-traded stocks in a country, divided by that country’s Gross Domestic Product.
The ratio in the chart above is calculated by dividing the ‘Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index’ by the US GDP. The Wilshire 5000 is widely accepted as the definitive benchmark for the US equity market and is intended to measure the total market capitalization of all US equity securities with readily available price data.
The most psychologically helpful analogy for me is that stock investing is loosely analogous to being the house in a casino. You’re going to have wild swings but over time it will be lucrative.
