Not exactly stonk news, but this put a smile on my face.
Would love to see some follow up articles on the “FIRE with $1 million all equities” crowd right about now.
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I can’t fathom the potential loss from collective dip buying for something like tesla with its diehard investor base. Like, tesla could drop 90% from now and still have a market cap larger the GM and it woukd still have to battle with losing regulatory credits and EV production to its competitors to supplement its 80 share price.
looks at portfolio
holy **** was not dumping all of it a few months ago a massive mistake :( (okay I wouldn’t have dumped all of it but the stuff I wasn’t gonna keep forever, yeah that)
At least you didn’t call bubble and sit out for 19 months, then finally give up and start buying value stocks a week into February 2022.
I’m still beating the market but -0.83% vs -7.3% feels a lot worse than being up like 8% against a -2% S&P.
But I’m also only like 60% invested so it’s actually not even -0.83% when you factor that in. Still feels gross emotionally to have been right and maybe fucked it up anyway.
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Are you reconsidering the strategy around trying to time the market?
everyone who predicts market crash is eventually right. predicting it on time is the only thing that matters
Just wish I’d either gotten into value at the start or stayed out longer. I mean as frustrating as it is, if I continue to beat the market by 6.5% every 2.75 months that ends really well for me in the long run. I’d be thrilled with beating the market by 28% per year.
Given my allocation, if it keeps crashing, I should still end up coming out ahead of where I would have been if I stayed invested in 2020 and stayed in now just but not being 100% invested and being willing to go to 100% once it’s low enough.
Still autobuying index funds every paycheck like a chump.
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Haven’t checked my balance in a month or so
Good luck with all that, sincerely because you’d be one of very few who have success “timing” the market and it’s usually just dumb luck. Generally, just holding and suffering during downturns is the best strategy, imo.
As far as some TA buffoonery, there are a lot of people watching the market right now and I’d imagine some are kind of either “not wanting to miss out on this dip like last” or just waiting to see what happens knowing that it could come down further. I think if SPY dropped below something like 395, I’d venture a guess that you could start seeing some 7%+ covid level drops with the attention that the market is getting right now … but better to just through your phone out the window and not try to guess what is going to happen.
There are reams of data supporting that in the long run, you are NOT a chump for doing just that.
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My rule is time the market only for black swan events. People take too long to realize they thing the couldn’t imagine is actually happening. Then they stay remain scared to come outside for too long after the danger has passed.
I’m pretty sure Wookie was being facetious.
I cannot image the pain that came with this realization.
My 401k has been in a “cash” account for 14 years Reddit - Dive into anything
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I’ve never looked at what fund my money is in because I never lost a ton of money, so all was good in my book.
On the one hand LOL of course, but they posted the story to prevent others from making the same mistake, which demonstrates humility and character imo. Plus they’re only 35 so plenty of time to recover.
Why are you investing in stocks at all if you believe the broader market has (or had as of Feb 2022) negative real expected returns? Particularly after they ran up huge from a point in 2020 where presumably you also thought they had negative real expected returns?
I know just enough about equities and investing to avoid problems like this and I consider having that knowledge a minor moral failing on my part; something I would be hesitant to admit irl.
I thought the goal of the Fed and the administration was to attempt to use inflation to avoid a nominal crash, and let the broader market essentially churn/trade sideways for several years. So I decided to take some market exposure in value stocks in case that was the case. I still think that was their goal, it just appears it’s not going to work. It was always a needle that was going to be tough to thread for them.